Crack in BTC Foundation

Disclaimer.

I had no idea how far this page will bring me. Now, there is plenty of stuff written on this page and some stuff has pointers and some stuff does not have pointers. If you see some statement that does not have a pointer, pelase take into account that most likely the statement is based on some pragmatic thing that happened that day. Most of the times the 'thing' would be a script trading in financial markets simulators, or a piece of information from some public source. So when it looks like a speculative statement, usually it is not. There are some questionable statements, that can not be proved, but I don't think I'm placing any blame on any particular individual here, so should be no problem. Those are the notes for myself primarity.

End of disclaimer. Jun 07 2021.

January 21 2021

Crypto Crime Cartel: The end is nigh for Tether

Or how about when Tether went to great lengths to represent that each Tether (USDT) is backed 1:1 with the U.S. dollar, a position it maintained right up until the point where they had no other option to concede the truth by admitting - via sworn affidavit - that at best, each USDT is backed at a rate of 74%, and not even necessarily by pure U.S. dollars?

Tether price manipulation

has become too big to fail. Bitcoin now finds itself a high tech manifestation of the very thing that Satoshi sought to address

The Bit Short: Inside Cryptos Doomsday Machine (Jan 14 2021)

Ycombinator
reddit

In Short. Any bank with couple Bln $ can collapse the whole crypto ecosystem. The page says how.

To be crystal clear: every time you sell Tethers on Kraken, you are forcing Tether Ltd. to pay you in US dollars. If you can manage to sell enough Tethers for USD on Kraken, then Tether Ltd. will run out of dollars and this whole machine - which currently undergirds 70% of all crypto trading flows - will fall apart.


Updated: January 22 2021

The run of BTC was that *all* the crypto brokers on the planet were mandated to *convert* the Ripple holdings into BTC (hence forcing the demand for BTC! )

This was my tweet from January 8.
BTC market cap: $700 Bln.
ETH market cap: $149 Bln.
LTC market cap: $11 Bln.
XRP market cap: $21 Bln.

It's dog eat dog. To fuel BTC run they *had* to kill somebody. XRP was the only "somebody" in the room who both had the money and had no protection at the same time.
And another tweet from January 3.
Dec 17 - Coinbaise starts going public. 
Dec 22 - SEC attacks XRP. 
Dec 31 - Coinbase obeys to attack on XRP.  
Almost instantly XRP trading halted by (many) brokers (because they look at Coinbase). 
Jan 1 - crazy run by BTC and (of course!) ETH. 
*Exactly* as predicted by XRP's CEO.
This is by Ripple's CEO : The SEC's Attack on Crypto in the United States (Dec 22 2020)

Updated: January 22 2021

There is 'explanation' why the Doomsday article should be ignored. The explantion is here: DanHeld

It starts with an image of a crazy dude. That's because this cycle of internet is based on pictures. It does *not* provide the URL to original article. And it does not really address several most important issues.


My tweet BTC vs EU vs US (Jan 27, 2021)

BTC is better defense from EU capital controls 
(it's also defense from US capital controls, but slightly less effective). 
That explains why BTC is basically illegal in Europe. 
Only select few hub companies in Europe are allowed to touch crypto. 
It's license to print money.
I basically calculated percentages of the same explosion that happened today in the markets, and aftershock impact was distributed like this:
EU  : 40%
US  : 20%
BTC : 30%


After Sec took out Ripple and Biden took out Keystone, the attack on Stock Exchange is unrolling

My tweet BTC attacks US stock market (Jan 27, 2021)
It's clear what they are trying to do. 
They are trying to consume US stock market with proceeds they accumulated from BTC market. 
They attacked only one stock, though, so they don't really have that much ammo.
Reddit makes AMC, GameStop stock go wild: This 'insane' 'Ponzi scheme' can't last Nasdaq CEO Suggests Halt to Trading to Allow Investors to 'Recalibrate Their Positions' After GameStop Surge

Bad journalizm. Should be "Nasdaq CEO explains implications of pump and dump". Problem is - Nasdaq CEO is using provocative wording! Is that stupidity, or malice?


January 28 2021

First it was bad journalizm. Now they are 'fixing' things in a way that can only piss off people. I can not belive this is first time Wall Street has to deal with Pump and Dump. Clearly something else is at play.

Trump's buddy explains
January 29 2021

My tweet
They are trying to decentralize BTC. 
The funny doggie coin, the stock, the *whatever*. 
4 years are over, time to present the value. 
A clip with a flying dog? That's the value? 
Interesting, how would they manage.

February 02 2021

My tweet
Particular ports are being slowed down (not blocked).
Exactly like one ex-European prime minister said.

In my case it basically destroys one highly-profitable (real-time) trading strategy. It is application-specific attack, not the broker-specific (I tested several brokers). Also - every other thing works (including in-browser trading). Baiscally, some real-time indicators are wiped out by this.


February 08 2021

Musk pumped BTC to new levels. Tesla buys $1.5 billion in bitcoin, sending its price soaring

Also found this: tweet
The GameStop Turducken of Scammery....
This is both amazingly amusing and also remarkably dangerous.  So lets go through the layers.

February 09 2021
Found a way to drop 3 zeroes from original article.
There is still few zeroes to go, of course.
February 15 2021
Exposing The Robinhood Scam: Here's How Much Citadel Paid To Robinhood To Buy Your Orders
February 18 2021
Another Big Conflict Of Interest Emerges For Citadel Just Minutes Before The Congressional Hearing
Citadel is in trouble. I knew that months ago from one of their job postings in Europe - on one obscure University's job board.
February 21 2021
Found a way to drop another 3 zeroes from original article.
Problem is - USA has no access to those mechanizms It does. Figured it out in March.
There is only one operational and it is clearly selective (because unregulated).
Gotta give to Switzerland. They did it again.

February 23 2021
Figured out the entire pipeline of exchanges, the beginning, the middle and the end. Original article (and the guy who called big short) provide some validation.
February 26 2021
I know only one guy of my level now, this is his website : http://forexmarketmaker.london/
I tried working with him, there was a good experiment my robots traded against his system.
You can ask him about the results, he is approachable.
We don't agree on some important moments in life, but his project is the strongest statement I've seen on the internetz regarding to Currencies and Central Banks.
Crypto is not currency and it has no public Central Bank behind it, so it's different. Still there are some similiarities.
February 26 2021
Figured out how to scale out liquidity of BTC times N.
If I can see it - somebody else will see it.
No, not Elon Musk. He is on ETH side of things.
February 27 2021
Please give us $15K and we will detonate millions of $
It is no joke actually. Most likely, these are the people, who brought trump to power.
They used stacked gold (expropriated) and UK exchanges for paper trading.
March 07 2021
Now I understand why people get out of finance. Once some things are figured out, finance is rather boring stuff.
The second portal to print money is in US. Owned by guess who? You guessed right.
March 10 2021
GameStop Just Collapsed After Topping Record Close
Saga of pump & dump of GME (which is now a desynthetic index play) is still unrolling, and the play is elegant. I had no name for it, so had to invent one. It's not really reverse indexing, it's the 'unindexing' in a way. They can not possibly do it for many stocks of course, but it's absolutely mathematically viable play for a single stock. I am amazed nobody on Wall St seems to understand this kind of play. Zerohedge article gives the idea, so maybe they understand.
March 12 2021

My tweet
1. Gamestop is fintech virus of new generation.
2. Civilization is clearly not ready.
3. There is more coming. 
4. Gamestop is only the first. Many others are possible with modern tooling.

March 14 2021

There is a *clear* marodeur component in BTC. It's not the primary one but it explains the growth.
Independently found this next day: Article on Miners
They're not connecting the dots, but provide the illustration.
Users of the forum have been taking exception with the "no cryptocurrency" rule speaks volumes. Some 'rules' there.

Also - one more tweet
"Bitcoin is an engine for automatic execution of P2P payment transactions on public blockchain".
"Ethereum is an engine for automatic execution of smart contracts on public blockchain".

Greenspan Put explained
March 17 2021

Wired article explains how lawyers can destroy bitcoin. I think that's the most credible threat. Lawyers can destroy anything.

My tweet
Lawyers can destroy bitcoin, yes. 
It will take some time, though. 
And it will not destroy the crypto ecosystem, which can switch to several other coins. 
So lawyers need to destroy *all* existing coins and all exchanges. 
To protect : build more exchanges. At least one is missing.

March 18 2021

One more tweet
If there is anybody here, who already has figured out ETH tooling
and wants to move to the next level, I have a nice #Solidity blueprint
that I would be glad to move to, say, #linkpool. email pault12 gmail

March 21 2021

Figured out the dumbest bully in crypto. Old trading rules still work.
The one everybody knows is "buy low and sell high". But that's positive rule.
There is one negative (and it's the most important one).

March 23 2021

On a positive note, there is a company now that any English speaking non-russian can bootstrap anywhere in the world.
The last piece was discovered today. By a non-russian, she just sent an email out and got all the answers.
It's supply chain blend with import export.

Figured out the dumbest bully. The US is re-adjusting and re-shuffling.


March 24 2021

My tweet
#lendroid https://lendroid.com is one of the most beautiful things I've seen in many, many years.
It aims very high. I think it will take the world a long time to catch up.
They might have to integrate with some byzantine engine eventually.

March 25 2021

Uniswap is just ... there ... In Brooklyn. Unavoidable and intimidating.
Not


March 26 2021

My tweet
Got an update from important crypto broker. *Major* comotion is in the books for all existing exchanges.
Some of them are regulated and some are not, right? May 1st is the deadline.
Basically, I think lawyers are preparing at attack on (all) of exchanges.
Coinbase was first.

US real estate can only go up. Gold is a time tested defence against inflation. Indexing is the only thing that works. Dollar is world's best currency. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Earth is flat.

Musk should sell more Teslas for BTC.
Or else.

There is a simple way he can do that.
We will see next few months in this chart,
if all those years at PayPal taught him anything.

March 29 2021

My tweet
NFTs are super cool. 
They don't know, but they build on Identicon. 
The impact of NFTs could be big. 
Basically, it blends pictures into (currently black and white) ledger. 
The thing Netscape did - they brought images to html.
There was one idea I had aroud Paxful and other marketplaces, but there was no easy technology to implement. Now there is - it's NFTs
April 1 2021

"It's not all about the money, you know," he said in a rare interview with a Fuller Institute executive in 2018, in which he spoke about his calling as an investor and his Christian faith. "It's about the long term, and God certainly has a long-term view."

One of World's Greatest Hidden Fortunes Is Wiped Out in Days
April 5 2021

When people talk about minig alliances, do they know which kind of alliances they are talking about?
Conventional mining? Crypto mining? Could there be a hybrid model? The transnational alliance, that spans cross verticals?
Funny thing. There are several. Information is openly available in wikipedia or on youtube.
No, there will be no links.

April 7 2021

Got a first question in 4 years that might make sense (from defi group just found today). Here is the answer.

The simplest - I can provide tradable indicator(s) for (any) crypto currency.
A bit better would be to blend them with multicharts, also there are many things around Solidity.
(Just porting subset of Solidity to BTC stack will be good enough).
Can do simple pooling also. Just need to find somebody outside norcal.

So in general. Simplest pragmatic moves on (any) DeFi:

1. Indicators.
2. Trading station.
3. Solidity subsets.
4. Pooling.


April 9 2021

Fugured out nice NFT angle.
Figured out how to use BTC ATM.

April 10 2021

Figured out ultimate approach to trading BTC. It's from the 70s. Who would have though.
Also: tether has 39 days left, or sell to show, or sell to get out

"You'd Have To Shut Down The Internet" To Ban Bitcoin, Says SEC's Hester Peirce
"The government would immediately wipe out $2 trillion in net wealth" - I don't think they care.
No, there is *no* need to shut down the internet to block bitcoin traffic.
Massive application-level blockade is possible, I've seen it earlier this year - documented it here (February 2)

Another nice thing from that article is this image:



It shows BTC as middle ground between USD and EUR. This corresponds to my calculations from January 27
I simplify things a *lot* of course, because leverage distorts the picture, of course. So should be accurate when calling "Crypto" BTC.
Having said that - they are all pegged to the same stuff.
And they're keeping the peg. It is *possible* to break the peg, but good luck breaking delicate flowers.
Not recommended.


Another important article today. Things are getting hot.

Why Is The Bitcoin Curve So Steep... And Could A Bitcoin ETF Be The Worst Possible Thing For Crypto

But many institutional investors do not have access to Bitcoin, owing to concerns around custody, ambiguities around taxation and accounting, reputational risk and the origin of some tokens, and other potential issues." This is hilarious because back in December, when looking at the most recent Fund Manager survey, we said that Wall Street professionals were convinced that Bitcoin is becoming the most crowded trade on Wall Street, which as we said was impossible for the simple reason that most of these same "professionals" were not even involved in bitcoin. And now JPMorgan admits as much.

To people, who still don't understand. *Nobody* has access to Bitcoin. Except Miners and those, whom Miners allow access. Basically, it's like that petrodollar thingy, that goes on since 70s. Sanctions and stuff.

Thats why : Peter Thiel: China Using Bitcoin as a "Financial Weapon"
April 11 2021.

Mathematics looks like a scam to people, who don't know it. And that's a *lot* of people.
LTC was not a scam
April 12 2021.

NFTs are just starting.
They can be used to replace every other crypto, they are superset.
That's why they cost millions. Early adoption → commoditization.
They are far from commoditization. It's a next gold mine in plain sight, like bitcoin was few years ago.

my tweet
Regulated exchanges are joining the crypto show. This thing is going to bust.
Nothing can possibly survive the size of leverage they are piling up.
So the (only) question now is ... We are being set up for a series of "negative oil" explosions.

If my models are correct, stablecoins and NFTs will be the *only* possible antidote.
Most likely, we are entering the Chineese scenario in which exchange leaders move to some island.
After all the traders lose their shirts.
Every month of something. I forgot how frequent they had it.
Looks inevitable.


April 13 2021

Talked to this powerhouse, they offer fantastic tooling.
The powerhouse understands what I want to do with their software and they see no problem.
This is their product.
They have all the tools in the open.

Combining their tools with some other stuff (that already exists) it is possible to provide 10x of what they offer.
The numbers are from reality, there is a gap between two industries. ('old world' and 'new world')

April 14 2021

Game Over for Bullies
Game Over for cyberbullies.
Their monopoly license to print money has been revoked as of today.
(I only report things after they happen, predicting things is a sloppy business).

April 15 2021

Very interesting. Apple now holds the license. Question is for how long.
Update: They say "sorry, but we will keep destroying all this stuff here... thank you, idiots."
License not revoked. It is now shared.

Learned about this today. Pretty consistent.

'Big Short' trader Michael Burry quits Twitter

Investor Michael Burry may have deleted his entire Twitter account on Tuesday, a move that comes just weeks after the famous short-seller told his followers that his tweets about GameStop Corp. GME, -6.06% and other market trends had prompted a visit from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

No followers - no problem.
April 17 2021

Iconic Retail Investor "Roaring Kitty" Doubles Down On Gamestop, Now Owns 200,000 Shares

Couple of Unknowns for the Home Gamers:

- Based on the Latest Screenshot, Headband Guy's break even is about $55 per share on his portfolio of 200,000 shares, which includes the 50000 shares he just optioned at $12 per share. Implying a $69.33 per share break even on the 150,000 non optioned shares.

- Where did Headband Guy get the additional funds to buy the total amount of 150000 shares at an average price of $69.33 per share? ($69.33*150000= $10,400,000)

- What is Headband Guy's total margin in this account or total portfolio margin?

There are some traders (in France and Japan) that are systematicaly losing money, but they stay in the trade still. There was at least one French dude actually got a large bonus for losing some large amounts. How is that possible? It's possible, because that's their job. (global) Trading is a bit more complex, than most people think. For example, every time Musk sells a Tesla, that makes some person in Singapore a little bit more happy. They might not even know why they are a bit happier. They might never know.

Greenspan Put (1987) introduced an insurance for any productive activity in USA (even it was stupid). That created an unbreakable business machine. Greenspan Age of Turbulence (2007) - which was +20 years - introduced another insurance so US financial industry is *still* unbreakable, even when the accumulated stupidity started to destroy the business machine. The dude is 95 y/o. Republican. Current cycle ends in 2027.


Broker's Dilemma

Price drop - 10% - I seen it in the making yesterday. I predicted it here Apr 12. I did *not* bet on that.

Controlled demolition.
Will not destroy my approach, but a *lot* of people will be losing a *lot* of money now, because leveraged derivatives on BTC are now trading on *regulated* US exchanges as of last week.

I wonder how many brokers will stay alive next 4 years.

Broker's Dilemma they have is this:

1. Don't let crypto in == miss on *ton* of capital.
2. *Let* crypto in == get a margin call (Negative Oil Scenario. Robinhood GameStop Scenario)


April 18 2021

Law abiding citizen dilemma

There is now only one place on this planet where US citizens can legally make money on crypto.
Interestingly, by doing so, US citizens will be destroying the USA.
Decisions, decisions.

Bitcoin Crashes As Much As 15% Amid Unsubstantiated Report Of Money Laundering Crackdown

The market-wide crash has in $1.72 billion worth of long positions liquidated in just one hour alone. Expanding this range to 24-hours shows that 927,000 traders' positions worth nearly $10 billion were wiped off, with $68.73 million being the largest liquidation so far according to FX street.

The story says it was triggered by some twit or whatever. Reality is that market makers did it. (My engines captured that). This is how 'negative oil' looks like. (Traders lost, whales are 'ok', exchanges are 'ok', insiders made a killing)


April 19 2021

Tyler says: 40K

Where did the proceeds from BTC hit job went? Into FX they went.

I will create a cryptocurrency like bitcoin for you

Trading financial instruments is *not* 50/50 game. Betting is also *not* 50/50 game. I am not sure if throwing the coin is 50/50 game. Maybe if a special coin flipping machine throws it. "Guildenstern and Rosencrantz are dead" talks about this in detail.

April 21 2021

The Bankers Are Coming! The Bankers Are Coming... For Your Bitcoin

"We regard Bitcoin and stablecoin as crypto assets ... These are investment alternatives," Li Bo, deputy governor of the PBOC, said on Sunday during a panel hosted by CNBC at the Boao Forum for Asia.
"They are not currency per se. And so the main role we see for crypto assets going forward, the main role is investment alternative" he added.


April 23 2021

My tweet
Coinbase went IPO and Bitcoin lost 15% wiped out all the retail traders. 
Robinhood filed for IPO March 23. 
They don't yet have a ticker
The day they get a ticker on NASDAQ would be an interesting day for US stock market.
Which is not particularly sane.

April 24 2021

Now I understand why all the (recent) lunacy in trading.
Second wave of COVID will "level everything up" (like the first one did), so crazy gamblers are having a field day. Again.

Dozens Arrested After CEO Of Turkish Crypto Exchange Flees With $2 Billion

"One can establish a crypto exchange with just 50,000 liras (about $6,000) in capital," Oguz Evren Kilic, a lawyer representing Thodex users, said by phone. "There's a huge regulatory gap in this field."

I predicted this : Apr 12
April 26 2021

My tweet
Well, looks like crypto is now all grown up and has to find their own way.
It looks like insider trading line from "old world" to "new world" had been disconnected, 
so the crypto market makers now will fly blind. Like everybody else. 
It's been interesting 4 years of insanity.

April 27 2021

My tweet
BTC is pumped up by shorts.
Who would have thought.
This is sarcasm.

April 28 2021

My tweet

"Somebody" is building a supreme weapon to wipe out USA and they are doing that on USA dime. In plain sight. Damn shame.


April 29 2021

My tweet
As per CME, the market cap of All Cryptos is equal to USD in circulation. 
The "astonishing jump" was Sep 2020 till now.
My tweet
Crypto  *doubled* the amount of money in circulation on this planet,
*but* most of it is in Asia!

Mining is in Asia. Nothing in Middle East.

April 30 2021

My tweet
https://www.energi.world/about/

1. Good currency has to be bootstrapped.
2. Good currency has to be forked.

There are brilliant people around any tech.

May 02 2021

My tweet
So all those US regulated brokers are now going all in with gigantic gambling bets on crypto,
but they don't allow you to deploy in crypto. You need to "go to your friendly banker".
They're really lost at this point. I am using polite wording here.
My tweet
Forex industry is in deep trouble. 
They somehow managed to miss the bubble the size of their industry.

What is forex anyway? A little layer above commodities one would say. Wiped out by crypto. Slight change in dynamics can wipe out any engine. Most of FX signal providers degrade in one year.


May 04 2021

Dogecoin hit .50

My tweet
dogecoin is a *very* serious project. 
it's not funny at all, of course. 
it's a weapon, basically. 
and it works.

May 05 2021

For the ruined, Turkey's crypto crackdown comes too late

1. Inflation
2. Confiscated gold
3. Polulation tries to protect with BTC (because unregulated)
4. Exhange owner miscalculates capacity.
5. 'Regulated' Citadel / Robinhood was simply bailed out.
6. Nobody can bail out crypto exhange that got margin call (15% drop of BTC was the margin call)

May 07 2021

Musk will *not* be pumping up another $1.5 Bln into BTC. The CFO of the largest hedge fund will do that now.

Watch: Elon Musk Calls Crypto "Speculation", Says People "Should Not Invest Their Life Savings" In It
CFO Of World's Largest Hedge Fund Quits To Join Bitcoin Company
Goldman Announces Formation Of New Crypto Trading Desk

The Rise Of Bitcoin Explains how Bitcoin works. In the middle it says "Let's fast forward from 2013 to 2020". Cute.
May 09 2021

I've been thinking should I publish this, but after watching (autism is not a joke) Musk on SNL, I decide to publish this. There is (at least) one more autistic person in NY in charge of humongous amounts of money and I also know several nearby, so this is a trend. Unfortunately. Bill Gates (who just got divorced) was another example of autistic person (formally) in control of large amounts of money. Not a good trend at all.

Here is the article, that basically expalins last 12 years.

Russia, Iran, and A SWIFT Nuclear First Strike

I did not know Obama did that to the Swiss.
I knew they were really pissed off, but I could not understand why.
Now I understand.
The article is spot on.
And now the dollar in curculation == crypto in circulation.
The lesson : don't fuck up with the Swiss.
They (always) know their stuff.
And they are fighters.

May 10 2021

My tweet
From today's session it is clear - crypto market makers are cornered, 
because they can not print Trillions of $ out of thin air
(and they wasted 4 years of outstanding opportunity).
Surely, some people got rich by scamming millions, but the real story of crypto only *begins* now.


May 12 2021

Massacre in crypto markets. I predicted it May 10.
Buterin moving millions of $
There is also some Musks stuff (Tesla will not accept BTC) but at this point it does not really matter much.
My money were stolen 4 years ago, so this is all not really affecting me.
It will affect indirectly. Hunger games stuff coming to USA.

May 14 2021

My tweet
I now have 3 blueprints around NFTs.

1. One can combat online fraud around cryptocurrencies.
2. Another will re-format lending industry.
3. Third might re-format patent/IP industry.

First cycle of blockchain only doubled the money supply. 
That was easy and done before (euro).
The world seen nothing yet. Early days of the Internet.
May 16 2021

Agony of 'crypto influencers'.
Buterin is trying to uplift dodge by doing the same trick he did for bicoin.
It's basically (going down) Musk/Buterin duo vs Portnoy/I-forgot-his-name Bulgarian dude from Palo Alto.
What is the offering exactly? I kind of forgot by this time ... Ah, well. Maybe they offer nothing, really.
410 trillion $shib coins burned by vitalik today. 
That equals out to 7 billion dollars. 
40% of the whole supply burned FOREVER!!! $shiba #shibaarmy

May 18 2021

My tweet
The best crypto bot has winning rate of 36.7%
So, burning billions of dollars did not help, heh?
Bitcoin below 40K, dodge below 0.4 or whatever etc.
Crypto Twitter meltdown.
Hedge funds might have a field day. Value is still there, nobody is working on it. Yet.

May 19 2021


Everybody is shell shoked. But this is not the time to be.
Many companies got hit by 'negative oil' - it's a simple trick that whales use to destroy ordinary human beings 
(the idea is that the market is hit by 'impossible' event and brokers underestimate capacity they need to 
survive the margin call). After that event, regulated brokers are bailed out ( because 'too big to fail' ) 
and nobody else is bailed out. Because I live in USA, I am used to this kind of stuff, they do this to people 
very routinely ( 9/11 was one of those events, but it was highly visible at least ) - after that they learned 
to do this kind of stuff with less of a visual effects, but the idea is always the same.

1. They pile up everyone's money ( last 4 years the money supply in circulation has doubled - there is as much 
crypto in circulation as there is USD ).

2. They burn the pile down (but they don't burn the 'protected').

Why do you think those guys had to run away: 
https://twitter.com/phpae/status/1390196870895390721
they were no scammers most likely.

There were some companies in the 9/11 building that were told not to come to work that day.
Similarly this time there was a warning in advance: 

https://twitter.com/TylerDurden/status/1395032839515561986

I also gave a warning: 
https://twitter.com/phpae/status/1391883421400518657

Now back to the positive side.

The opportunity is *huge*
===================

*Everybody* is shell shocked and they will stay like that for a very long time.
The *miners* are shell shocked also (they were *clearly* not planning on China ban and Tesla used as a scapegoat).

Don't blame yourself.
Many, many people were set up for this day for at least 4 years.
Maybe longer.
The real story of crypto only begins now.

This is my twit from May 14 : 
https://twitter.com/phpae/status/1393446325761437699

Basically, everything I was writing here and in my twitter feed is being validated now.

May 20 2021

tweet

Money lost : $460.000.000.000


Estimate, of course.

estimate confirmed tweet
I saw it with my own eyes. 
Dump happened 7 minutes before Musk's tweet 
and then 0.04T dollars vanished from global crypto market cap

May 21 2021

tweet
Lot's of crypto entities trying to do lots of damage control. 
PR people are facing an interesting challenge. 
How to explain to scammed people that they should be happy for a bunch of billionaires, who made a killing? 
Who does it best might be promoted to NY PR agencies, I guess.
tweet
US fintech is hiring people, who can draw pretty pictures.
Hong Kong fintech is hiring mathematicians.
Who has better odds in next cycle?
tweet Pope Francis (!) May 19 (!)
Technology based on the use of highly polluting fossil fuels needs to be replaced without delay. 
There is reason to hope that humanity at the dawn of the 21st century will be remembered for 
having generously shouldered its grave responsibilities. 
Actual numbers on energy consumption:
Bitcoin Energy Consumption:
The world produces 160,000 TWh every year. 50,000 TWh is wasted.
#Bitcoin uses 120 TWh.
There is (of course) no rebound. BTC is below 40K.
Coordinated attack on the *only* way for people to protect from bankers.

tweet
On April 19 Tyler said $40K.
On May 19 (one month later - exactly) Tyler *got* $40K. 
I don't blame Tyler.

May 23 2021

It is clear - they are trying to destroy free trade. ("No free trade" means war).
Goldman supports ETH, of course, etc etc. Free trade is being attacked from all corners.
How did our guys go?
To serve in the red guard -
To serve in the red guard -
    Lay down the riot!
    Eh you, grief-bitter,
    Sweet life!
    Torn coat,
    Austrian gun!
    We are on the woe to all bourgeois
    Let's fan the world fire
    World blood fire
    Lord bless!
Google translate is getting rather good with old revolutionary poetry!
May 24 2021

tweet
If the plan is to burn down the dumbest 50% of crypto companies
(and double the value of those, who remain operational) - the plan is working.
Cryptos Soar After Musk, Saylor Speak To Bitcoin Miners, Will Standardize Energy Reporting

Nothing "soars", though.
May 25 2021

No jobs, no water, no electricity, 70000 criminals in the streets. It will be OK.
May 26 2021

tweet
Bitcoin DeFi is infrastructure. 
Currently there is only one integration point for entire planet. 
Just *one*. For the whole planet. Surely this point should be turned into 100s of integration points. 
There is no magic in *that*. Also - no magic in having a backup. 1->2->many.

May 29 2021

Gamblers don't know computing.
Computer (always) wins, until somebody splashes a beer into it.
And then you "won" but you got no computer.

tweet
There will be more altcoins. 
No other way to peg. No peg means no input/output. 
It's von Neumann architecture, check it out.

May 30 2021

Surveying the May 2021 Sell-off
"Conversely, the balances of US-regulated exchanges 
Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken and Bitstamp have continued to decline
with almost on meaningful impact on the trend throughout May" 
*Everybody* is running offshore. Guess why?

In general, I 100% agree with 50% of conclusion, but I 50% disagree with 50% of conclusion. Ra!

JPM the Audacity of Bitcoin *Priceless*.
Jun 01 2021

tweet
Because nobody understood the gamestop trade, dodge trade is now legit, of course.
On Coinbase.
Hit on BTC: 50%. Hit on DeFi: 30%


Jun 02 2021

tweet
HODLers - destroyed by May 19.
Traders - under attack after June 1st (via PA).
Who is left? Miners are left.

They lost HODLers and they are about to lose traders.
tweet
PA is messed up across all classes of assets. 
Only gamblers and miners think they might be "fine". 
And options traders of course.
The usual. No production since how long now?

Jun 03 2021

tweet
The BTC stack is: miners / hodlers / traders / developers.
The ETH bet is traders / developers.
Effectively traders / developers are stacked against miners.
That's dogma. 
Any stack that harmonizes miners / traders / developers will win.
Hodlers will hold anything, they don't care.
tweet
Automated ALTs are fine. As expected. ETH is the king of Automated ALTs.
No water. I think maybe because of earthquake.
My bots had to survive through volcano eruption. True story. "Solidity".

tweet
Crypto exchanges located outside USA are now openly encouraging people from USA to use VPN/Tor etc.
How is this different from The Great Firewall? It is not. Duh.
tweet
United States, Balkans, Belarus, Myanmar, Ivory Coast, 
Crimea-Ukraine, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iran, Iraq, Liberia, 
North Korea, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Hong Kong, and Mainland China. 

Guess what's in common?

Sanctions on mining. As in - they are sanctioned *against*.

Jun 06 2021
Automated Alts are destroying the base enforcing shitty PA for index (only scalpers benefit). 
They are hedged, that's why.

Jun 07 2021

The GME dude is back since June 1st. Of course he is. And he is very clear in his messages.
Printing all the money since ... long time ... Was it such a good idea after all? It was not.
Then one should go back to gold standard and stuff. Or 4 years back. Or 12. Or 30. Can't live in the past.
One thing is obvious, the dude is the exact lookalike of the Robin Hood dude. So "Portnoy" is above them.
Jun 08 2021

There is only one crypto company on this planet that is staying cashflow positive these days.
If you don't know who they are - crypto might be not a good investment of your time.
The massacre of crypto continues, sure. Freedom. Is. Hard.

It is clear. DeFi industry are clowns.
There is only one contract they should be offering at this time and not one of them offers it.
This means they are clowns.

Jun 13 2021

tweet
There is (only?) (one) major problem with the world, 
that is driven by numbers from the tables. 
Everybody has the same tables.
I had a fantastic conversation with commodities supertrader.
They exist, but they should not be allowed to talk to us, mortals.
Maybe there is no rules now after one year of superpandemic.

tweet
So all this Web 3.0 is because (banking) rails have no bounding curves. That is impressive. 
Equally impressive was Web 2.0, because Rails *had* round corners.
Let's not forget xml:namespaces ( ':' written as '-' was SGML ).
Little things have big consequences indeed.
Just looked at DeFi again. Boy oh boy.
Jun 14 2021

The Coming 'Build Back Better' World

Meanwhile, in China there was also major inflation news Friday. Bloomberg stated "China Turns to Its Huge Commodity Reserves in Bid to Tame Prices", underlining Beijing will be using its stocks of commodities --soft to hard-- to cap prices, starting with aluminium, coal, copper, and zinc. China has also stated it will set up a temporary pork reserve system to keep a lid on that key "P" in CPI --along with corn, wheat, edible oil, and vegetables-- allowing the state to stockpile whenever domestic prices fall "excessively", and to sell when prices rise too high. In short, China is effectively trying to act as the global price setter of commodities to keep inflation in check.

Yet commodities are subject to global demand, and are priced in USD not CNY!

Beijing boosted the PBOC FX swap-line Ankara enjoys from $2.4bn to $6.0bn.


Jun 15 2021

Major updates from Cassandra on twitter.

Jun 16 2021

Bitcoin mining difficulty drops 5% after Xinjiang's miner shutdown

On-chain data shows the network's mining difficulty dropped to 19.8 trillion, a level not seen since early January.


Jun 17 2021

Biden administration now forbids the open source in USA, because private software will be "more secure". That is, of course, insane. Open source usually does not have backdoors or other crap like that, because people can see it in open source and remove crap. Private software is full of security problems. USA politicians after 2008 managed to officially destroy the best software development industry in the world. That industry was the only reason my generation came here. Now there is no reason for any person with brains to be here. Paradise lost.

Ironically, by this time I have a good idea where is the next frontier.
Jun 18 2021

tweet
1. US citizens are not allowed to use leveraged trading on crypto.

2. All the software engineering crypto jobs are outside USA.

3. Biden administration just declared that Open Source is evil.
Bill Gates says that for 30 years so not really surprising.

RIP US technical sector.
Bill Gates never liked that software thing anyways. He can not code. Never could.
The controversy over Bill Gates becoming the largest private farmland owner in the US

Jun 24 2021

Robinhood's IPO Plans Slowed By SEC Review


Jun 27 2021

Cryptocurrency Exchange Binance Banned In The UK everything in reverse now.


Jun 30 2021

Robinhood Pays $70 Million To Settle Allegations Of Manipulation, Opening Door To IPO

"It's one thing to know you're being front run and keep using Robinhood. It's another thing when they outright shut down trades in broad daylight, and coercively only permit selling of choice stocks to benefit their actual clients (Spoiler: not you). Unbelievable that Robinhood hasn't been sued out of existence yet. This fine is an insult."


Jul 02 2021

Surprisingly, figured out some stuff related to Esperanto (no less).


Jul 02 2021

Questions Swirl After Mysterious Drowning Death Of 41-Year-Old Bitcoin Billionaire

Crypto is a deadly video game. Especially for those, who (still) think it's a game.

With all the comotion of last few days, I forgot to mention one important update (maybe *the* most important update). Swiss closed their crypto gold mine. About the same time British said "we have no business with Binance". And that was the week McAfee died. And another dude died in Europe. The owner of "Black Pearl". We live in a f*cking movie.

British are saying "we will approach this virus thing as a flu".
Jul 03 2021

If (financial) weapon A beats (financial) weapon B the exact same way weapon A beats weapon C, most likely both B and C have the same origins.
Jul 08 2021

Wells Unexpectedly Shuts All Existing Personal Lines Of Credit, Hinting US Economy On The Edge
Jul 10 2021

go lang is a killer for erlang. erlang belongs to Sweden. so 'allmighty' google does not have golang running nicely on android. just *wow*. Sanctions indeed go strong in USA. US corporation that developed a language for mobile devices can not use their own language in their own devices. android-go "The android-go project aims to provide a platform (namely an SDK) for writing native Android apps in Go programming language". Popular in 2016, dropped in 2018.
Jul 11 2021

You can not 'win' if you don't play in the Casino.
You can not play in the Casino if you got no chips.

Yes, it's that dumb.

Jul 11 2021

There is this E programming language
with "Smart contracts" - abandoned in 2001.

Crockford did JSON. Which was based on XML rebellion.
So funny how this "progress" thingy works.

Omissions: UCSD Pascal. JavaScript.

Jul 13 2021

China's Banned Bitcoin Miners Flee In Search Of Cheap Electricity

"All my money is gone,": he said, cursing as he chugged a beer. "Every day I'm losing money by not running those machines."

Hit on miners. I predicted this Jun 02.
Casino reversed the colors.

Jul 14 2021

Belt of Venus Agents Graduation

Northern Alliance - Female secret agents strengthened with prototype implants are trained and deployed behind enemy lines for covert operations.

South African Army 'Activates' All Reserve Members Amid Worsening Social Unrest

Democrats Unveil Bill To Decriminalize (And Tax) Marijuana

Miami Mayor Says The US Should Consider Bombing Cuba

Brazil's Bolsonaro Hospitalized After Hiccupping For Over A Week


Jul 15 2021

The Grant Williams Podcast: Bennett Tomlin & George Noble

Beginnings of crypto exchanges.
Jul 17 2021

Segovia. Paco. Vidovic. Django.
Jul 19 2021

Ukraine Uncovers Country's Largest Illegal Mining Farm to Date
"Agents confiscated documentation on electricity consumption as well as notebooks, phones, and flash drives, the announcement detailed". That was Jul 10, 2021.

They knew of todays drop, most likely. Miners are getting margin calls now. First exchanges. Now miners. The top was $60K. Today BTC dropped below $30K. By this time *everybody* lost 50%, so only superexchanges and superminers and supertraders remain operational. Not only crypto is burning, of course. Dow tumbles 700 points for its worst drop since October as investors fear a Covid resurgence

Everything under stress. Tomorrow is Jul 20th. Some military stuff is about to be settled in Europe. There will be no link.

By the way - Coinbase has no token of their own. They also lost major bank recently. Some IPO that was. Still better than the other side, though. A bit more humane.

Malaysia Destroys 1,000 Bitcoin Mining Rigs With A Steamroller
Jul 20 2021

Oswaldr Boelcke was Red Baron's predecessor. Both died 25 y/o.

"You can win the men's confidence if you associate with them naturally and do not try to play the high and mighty superior."
"I only open fire when I can see the goggle strap on my opponent's crash helmet."
Jul 21 2021

Volume spiked, ate the whole capacity on one of the servers. During NY trading session, naturally. One coin did it. Guess which coin did it? Yes - that one. Watch: Capitol Defendant's Attorney Says Detainees Are Being Subject To "Torture!" In Contentious CNN Interview maybe this is related, actually. The crypto-thing is working full throttle now and some countries are on a losing side of that trade. Guess who is on a losing side of crypto trade?
Jul 22 2021

So there is one company that I've built 20+ years ago. It changed hands many times since then. Once in a while I look at the "management" section. I can tell *a*lot* about the state of modern world from that single page. That's why businesses never "fail". Just change hands.

Singapore makes a firm stand. "It's a virus, like a flu". Pandemic is *no*more*. No quarantine etc.
Jul 23 2021

Figured a little bit more about this crypto bubble. There is only one safe hedge for that industry and it's counter intuitive. Still in a nutshell, the most balanced statement would be "crypto is a deadly video game, but poison could be the only medicine for some cases, just need to know how to use it right".

"Oh, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet"
Vegas Strip Club Now Accepts Bitcoin Payments

So, one can spend BTC on Nice Ladies, on Mansions and on Tesla's (scratch that. Can't buy a car with BTC no more. So only ladies and real estate). Any other circulation - not so much. Interesting conundrum, ideed.
Jul 24 2021

CNN: Segregate Unvaccinated, Make Them Pay For Tests Every Day

It's pretty much like ETH wants you to pay for every keystroke. ETH is becoming a real problem now. Not surprisingly.
Jul 25 2021

Absolutely nothing to see here. This is the volume spike on one of defi major players.

It has *absolutely* nothing to do with Vitalik Buterin's surprise cameo in Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis' living room

Ironically, what Vitalik says is not really *that* far off.
Turing complete, distributed, decentralised.
Not a monopoly, though.

Turing complete. Distributed. Decentralised - *no*big*deal*.

It's only a big deal for degraded population.
That's the (only) problem here. All in all, so far the hedge is working as designed, so I guess it's all good.

Update On Original Doomsday Article

What Effect Would Tether Being A Complete Fraud Have On Cryptos

If Tether is just minting USTD out of thin air and then using it to buy up Bitcoin, Ethereum and any other assets they can, then that's a problem (and it's also an exact microcosm of what central banks have been doing with intensified zeal since 2008).

Oh, yes. That's actually *exactly* what happens. They just do what European Central Banks already do. Problem is - European Central Banks went full throttle into supporting Nazis in Europe. Killed Ugoslavia. Killed Ukraine ( *twice*! First via USSR collapse, second via Russia collapse ). Killed (many) other countries. That massacre was providing some 'fuel' for this fire. By this time nobody is left to kill, so there is a pandemic now. They only kill educated countries. Killing uneducated countries gives no loot. Solution? Stop killing educated people to feed the mob. Will be decided next 4 years in the USA.

"Tether is a $60 Billion pile of liquidity that collateralizes a whole bunch of futures and leverage embedded in the crypto currency system" yep. Still 'better' than trillions of $ out of thin air.

Said differently, Tether tells us more about the flaws inherent in fiat currencies than it does about cryptos. Tether could be viewed as a microcosmic example of the USD being played out in fast-forward. When and if Tether implodes, we should watch carefully for hints of what could happen in a full blown USD (or any other fiat currency) crisis.

Also correct. Tether is 'just' a $60Bln model for $Trillions. Casino (still) thinks it always wins. Only does it? I think too much bluffing since 2008, so nobody actually can model with 100% certainty what's happening (but a lots of people pretend that they can). I called this stuff in January - 6 months ahead of Zerohedge. That does not change a thing for me actually. Still - this is an accurate article. Finally. (Recommendations are *all* wrong, though. Rather amusing. The dude is not a trader, 'dabbles' in trading most likely).

Bitcoin tops $39,000 for the first time in nearly 6 weeks, adding $114 billion to the crypto market

That's why all that volume was moving. They just dropped a *massive* bomb on cryptos today. I just could not belive my eyes. This is what started these 4 years. Options traders will make a killing, I think. This is getting rather annoying after 4 years. I wonder what's next.

That was a *classic* short squeeze. Most likely first ever short squeeze on crypto. This means after they trashed Wall St, now it is time for them to trash themselves. Ironically, that was the way they got to power.
Jul 26 2021

Figured out Java. Figured out ML. Figured out why there is no ML in Hadoop. Kind of figured out Wavelets (again). Took a few years. Ironically. Well, last 4 years were pretty much lost. What a waste.

People got used to WFH so Real Estate people (like trump) are in trouble now.

Usually it's coming from the C suite. Who's getting it from the CFO, from Real Estate Services, who have brilliant (but meaningless) spreadsheets that attempt to make a point about how the empty real estate is a drain on the bottom line, and through the high magic of culinary accounting they can make it all go away if only there were butts in seats.

Today's trading session was (is) interesting. Clearly what happened yesterday was abnormal and they will have big problems repeating it. That's the problem with insane "bitcoin" moves. It only works 1st time. Also - it looks like the volatility is not injected by BTC, it's being adsorbed by BTC now. Everything will be very clear by the end of the month. No way around it.

Figured out the *real* situation with some of USA "regulated" exchanges, who are actually *not* regulated, but got their licenses via bribes. Crypto destroyed them. Absolutely destroyed them. That's why there are some unusual activities in their host cities.
Jul 27 2021

World's Largest Cryptoexchange Limits Withdrawals For New Users To Just 0.06 Bitcoin

Binance is under squeeze. To encourage responsible trading, leverage has been limited to a maximum of 20x for accounts opened within 60 days on Binance Futures. Of course. So now the old guard can still get 100x and the new wave - not so much. They are now discriminating inside a single exchange! Before that it was based on citizenship. Very interesting, indeed. Discrimination inside a priveleged group only means they are grasping for straws. What's next? Depending on the color of your skin the same bet is 100x for you? Why not? Was ok to play against US citizens for 4 years (that's a group as well)

I need to write this down, because for some reason nobody *still* understands how this crap works.

1. People in USA make bets with leverage 1x1.
2. USA crypto exchanges front run their users and sell the order flow realtime to Europe.
3. Europeans (even Canadians actually, anybody - except US citizens) are "betting" sure bets with leverage 100x.
4. Robinhood does the same for "stawks". The difference is that for non-crypto it's not *this* obvious.

Result : planet is f*cked completely in just 4 years. Mission accomplished.

The way it happened can actually be traced to one conversation we overheard in one key US state. That was long, long time ago. There was an old guy and young guy. The old guy was saying "but it will hurt many people!" and the young dude said "but it will not hurt *you*". Well, fast forward to trump. Trump is not a problem. Trump is manifestation of a *real* problem. Which is generational. The "management" is absolutely *not* what it used to be.

Ether Trading Volume Growth Beat Bitcoin's In H1 For The First Time

That's because traders run out of funds and scale down a little bit. To trade BTC need to be perfect (or have tons of money to burn). ETH is a hedge. Less extreme.

It's a wet dream of *any* banker to be able to print coins when needed. Not bound to *nothing* ( and also - who is responsible? *Nobody* - because "decentralized" ). "What's crypto currency, babe?" "What's blockchain?" "What's decentralization?". The pandemic is a wet dream of *any* government worker : "Hey - you : do this and that! No questions asked! Because medicine". No surprise those two go hand in hand together last 4 years. Wet dreams of crazy people. They will not last of course. There will be plenty of damage, of course and then they will all cease to annoy the population.
Jul 28 2021.

"What's crypto, babe?" - Yet another re-incarnation of Burbakism, dude. Check it out. It's in the books. Books are in the libraries. Libraries are in the countries, that have libraries. USA used to be one of those. Ukraine was one of those too. Soviet Union was one of those too. The list goes on. The only thing that is certain - there was *no* Hitler in Japan.
Jul 29 2021.

There are few core rules of human civilization. The one most important (pragmatic) rule recently is this : whatever people do to animals they *always* try to do to people eventually. Think cows wearing gas masks is just some sick joke? Think again. By the way few people know that hitler was vegetarian. Something to do with cows. I have nothing against vegetarians, by the way. I do have problem with documentaries from the WW2. They restored those and there is plenty on youtube. In color. Some amazing footage. Just one frame in one of the documentaries changed a *lot* in my view on WW2, and I thought I knew it pretty well.

Another important documentary that's on youtube is the last speech of Soviet Nuclear scientist being pushed around by Soviet Farmer in 1989. Nobody understood that the price for that little episode will be a collapse of superpower, millions killed etc etc. The idiot farmer is still alive and got his Nobel prise. The Nuclear scientist also got his, but he died very fast. Nuclear phyisics kills people, unhealthy stuff. Problem is that farmers will never like that nuclear energy thing (Chernobyl destroyed the largest source of clean water in Europe, Fukushima destroyed the ocean by this time, how can one like the nukes?) So this conflict will always be with us. Nuclear scientists having their way can destroy the planet. Without their work - there is no space travel possible. No way out of this deadlock since 70s.
Jul 31 2021.

Front running crypto markets no longer requires any skills at all. They're trading between each other now. Pretty much like Wall St had to do 1 year ago. This means crypto markets are 1 year ahead of Wall St. Well, they trade 24/7 so of course they're ahead. It's clear that the head of the snake is in Europe.

Stumbled upon elegant mathematical model explaining prosperity of various diasporas. Looks applicable to crypto currencies.
Aug 02 2021.

The axes of evil are ripping USA apart. Idiots, who enable that for long time now, are still pretending that "everything is fine". No. It is not 'fine'. By this time idiots are clearly visible. There is not many. When things swing back it will not be pretty. ... It looks like things started to swing back today ...
Aug 03 2021.

Smart contracts on BTC chain is next 'big thing' in plain sight. Nothing prevents taking Solidity subset and compiling into Bitcoin blockchain. Well, there is of course a whole cottage industry of idiots pretending this and that, but I'm talking about the technicalities here. Ironically, the same (fake) challenge was imposed by XML's DTD / YACC 'incompatibility'. Only it took me a week to write a transpiler. Same can be done here. After 'scamdemic' will be dealth with, maybe I'll find some time to write that engine.
Aug 04 2021.

Olympic Gold. Some of it is still - out of this world.
Might be all drugs, though. Even a little bit is enough in atlethics.
They should have separated drugged / non-drugged long time ago.
French had a movie about that.
Maybe they will separate. Depends how it will go on current trans/non-trans.

The China Model: What the Country's Tech Crackdown Is Really About The government's clampdown signals a new era of harsher oversight that companies won't be able to avoid by registering in the Caymans or hiring in California. The only winner of this is only one country. And that's not USA, of course. There is only one counter that matters now. Ratio : non-english speaking US residents / english speaking US residents.