Crack in BTC Foundation

January 21 2021

Crypto Crime Cartel: The end is nigh for Tether

Or how about when Tether went to great lengths to represent that each Tether (USDT) is backed 1:1 with the U.S. dollar, a position it maintained right up until the point where they had no other option to concede the truth by admitting - via sworn affidavit - that at best, each USDT is backed at a rate of 74%, and not even necessarily by pure U.S. dollars?

Tether price manipulation

has become too big to fail. Bitcoin now finds itself a high tech manifestation of the very thing that Satoshi sought to address

The Bit Short: Inside Cryptos Doomsday Machine (Jan 14 2021)


In Short. Any bank with couple Bln $ can collapse the whole crypto ecosystem. The page says how.

To be crystal clear: every time you sell Tethers on Kraken, you are forcing Tether Ltd. to pay you in US dollars. If you can manage to sell enough Tethers for USD on Kraken, then Tether Ltd. will run out of dollars and this whole machine - which currently undergirds 70% of all crypto trading flows - will fall apart.

Updated: January 22 2021

The run of BTC was that *all* the crypto brokers on the planet were mandated to *convert* the Ripple holdings into BTC (hence forcing the demand for BTC! )

This was my tweet from January 8.
BTC market cap: $700 Bln.
ETH market cap: $149 Bln.
LTC market cap: $11 Bln.
XRP market cap: $21 Bln.

It's dog eat dog. To fuel BTC run they *had* to kill somebody. XRP was the only "somebody" in the room who both had the money and had no protection at the same time.
And another tweet from January 3.
Dec 17 - Coinbaise starts going public. 
Dec 22 - SEC attacks XRP. 
Dec 31 - Coinbase obeys to attack on XRP.  
Almost instantly XRP trading halted by (many) brokers (because they look at Coinbase). 
Jan 1 - crazy run by BTC and (of course!) ETH. 
*Exactly* as predicted by XRP's CEO.
This is by Ripple's CEO : The SEC's Attack on Crypto in the United States (Dec 22 2020)

Updated: January 22 2021

There is 'explanation' why the Doomsday article should be ignored. The explantion is here: DanHeld

It starts with an image of a crazy dude. That's because this cycle of internet is based on pictures. It does *not* provide the URL to original article. And it does not really address several most important issues.

My tweet BTC vs EU vs US (Jan 27, 2021)

BTC is better defense from EU capital controls 
(it's also defense from US capital controls, but slightly less effective). 
That explains why BTC is basically illegal in Europe. 
Only select few hub companies in Europe are allowed to touch crypto. 
It's license to print money.
I basically calculated percentages of the same explosion that happened today in the markets, and aftershock impact was distributed like this:
EU  : 40%
US  : 20%
BTC : 30%

After Sec took out Ripple and Biden took out Keystone, the attack on Stock Exchange is unrolling

My tweet BTC attacks US stock market (Jan 27, 2021)
It's clear what they are trying to do. 
They are trying to consume US stock market with proceeds they accumulated from BTC market. 
They attacked only one stock, though, so they don't really have that much ammo.
Reddit makes AMC, GameStop stock go wild: This 'insane' 'Ponzi scheme' can't last Nasdaq CEO Suggests Halt to Trading to Allow Investors to 'Recalibrate Their Positions' After GameStop Surge

Bad journalizm. Should be "Nasdaq CEO explains implications of pump and dump". Problem is - Nasdaq CEO is using provocative wording! Is that stupidity, or malice?

January 28 2021

First it was bad journalizm. Now they are 'fixing' things in a way that can only piss off people. I can not belive this is first time Wall Street has to deal with Pump and Dump. Clearly something else is at play.

Trump's buddy explains
January 29 2021

My tweet
They are trying to decentralize BTC. 
The funny doggie coin, the stock, the *whatever*. 
4 years are over, time to present the value. 
A clip with a flying dog? That's the value? 
Interesting, how would they manage.

February 02 2021

My tweet
Particular ports are being slowed down (not blocked).
Exactly like one ex-European prime minister said.

In my case it basically destroys one highly-profitable (real-time) trading strategy. It is application-specific attack, not the broker-specific (I tested several brokers). Also - every other thing works (including in-browser trading). Baiscally, some real-time indicators are wiped out by this.

February 08 2021

Musk pumped BTC to new levels. Tesla buys $1.5 billion in bitcoin, sending its price soaring

Also found this: tweet
The GameStop Turducken of Scammery....
This is both amazingly amusing and also remarkably dangerous.  So lets go through the layers.

February 09 2021
Found a way to drop 3 zeroes from original article.
There is still few zeroes to go, of course.
February 15 2021
Exposing The Robinhood Scam: Here's How Much Citadel Paid To Robinhood To Buy Your Orders
February 18 2021
Another Big Conflict Of Interest Emerges For Citadel Just Minutes Before The Congressional Hearing
Citadel is in trouble. I knew that months ago from one of their job postings in Europe - on one obscure University's job board.
February 21 2021
Found a way to drop another 3 zeroes from original article.
Problem is - USA has no access to those mechanizms It does. Figured it out in March.
There is only one operational and it is clearly selective (because unregulated).
Gotta give to Switzerland. They did it again.

February 23 2021
Figured out the entire pipeline of exchanges, the beginning, the middle and the end. Original article (and the guy who called big short) provide some validation.
February 26 2021
I know only one guy of my level now, this is his website :
I tried working with him, there was a good experiment my robots traded against his system.
You can ask him about the results, he is approachable.
We don't agree on some important moments in life, but his project is the strongest statement I've seen on the internetz regarding to Currencies and Central Banks.
Crypto is not currency and it has no public Central Bank behind it, so it's different. Still there are some similiarities.
February 26 2021
Figured out how to scale out liquidity of BTC times N.
If I can see it - somebody else will see it.
No, not Elon Musk. He is on ETH side of things.
February 27 2021
Please give us $15K and we will detonate millions of $
It is no joke actually. Most likely, these are the people, who brought trump to power.
They used stacked gold (expropriated) and UK exchanges for paper trading.
March 07 2021
Now I understand why people get out of finance. Once some things are figured out, finance is rather boring stuff.
The second portal to print money is in US. Owned by guess who? You guessed right.
March 10 2021
GameStop Just Collapsed After Topping Record Close
Saga of pump & dump of GME (which is now a desynthetic index play) is still unrolling, and the play is elegant. I had no name for it, so had to invent one. It's not really reverse indexing, it's the 'unindexing' in a way. They can not possibly do it for many stocks of course, but it's absolutely mathematically viable play for a single stock. I am amazed nobody on Wall St seems to understand this kind of play. Zerohedge article gives the idea, so maybe they understand.
March 12 2021

My tweet
1. Gamestop is fintech virus of new generation.
2. Civilization is clearly not ready.
3. There is more coming. 
4. Gamestop is only the first. Many others are possible with modern tooling.

March 14 2021

There is a *clear* marodeur component in BTC. It's not the primary one but it explains the growth.
Independently found this next day: Article on Miners
They're not connecting the dots, but provide the illustration.
Users of the forum have been taking exception with the "no cryptocurrency" rule speaks volumes. Some 'rules' there.

Also - one more tweet
"Bitcoin is an engine for automatic execution of P2P payment transactions on public blockchain".
"Ethereum is an engine for automatic execution of smart contracts on public blockchain".

Greenspan Put explained
March 17 2021

Wired article explains how lawyers can destroy bitcoin. I think that's the most credible threat. Lawyers can destroy anything.

My tweet
Lawyers can destroy bitcoin, yes. 
It will take some time, though. 
And it will not destroy the crypto ecosystem, which can switch to several other coins. 
So lawyers need to destroy *all* existing coins and all exchanges. 
To protect : build more exchanges. At least one is missing.

March 18 2021

One more tweet
If there is anybody here, who already has figured out ETH tooling
and wants to move to the next level, I have a nice #Solidity blueprint
that I would be glad to move to, say, #linkpool. email pault12 gmail

March 21 2021

Figured out the dumbest bully in crypto. Old trading rules still work.
The one everybody knows is "buy low and sell high". But that's positive rule.
There is one negative (and it's the most important one).

March 23 2021

On a positive note, there is a company now that any English speaking non-russian can bootstrap anywhere in the world.
The last piece was discovered today. By a non-russian, she just sent an email out and got all the answers.
It's supply chain blend with import export.

Figured out the dumbest bully. The US is re-adjusting and re-shuffling.

March 24 2021

My tweet
#lendroid is one of the most beautiful things I've seen in many, many years.
It aims very high. I think it will take the world a long time to catch up.
They might have to integrate with some byzantine engine eventually.

March 25 2021

Uniswap is just ... there ... In Brooklyn. Unavoidable and intimidating.

March 26 2021

My tweet
Got an update from important crypto broker. *Major* comotion is in the books for all existing exchanges.
Some of them are regulated and some are not, right? May 1st is the deadline.
Basically, I think lawyers are preparing at attack on (all) of exchanges.
Coinbase was first.

US real estate can only go up. Gold is a time tested defence against inflation. Indexing is the only thing that works. Dollar is world's best currency. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Earth is flat.

Musk should sell more Teslas for BTC.
Or else.

There is a simple way he can do that.
We will see next few months in this chart,
if all those years at PayPal taught him anything.

March 29 2021

My tweet
NFTs are super cool. 
They don't know, but they build on Identicon. 
The impact of NFTs could be big. 
Basically, it blends pictures into (currently black and white) ledger. 
The thing Netscape did - they brought images to html.
There was one idea I had aroud Paxful and other marketplaces, but there was no easy technology to implement. Now there is - it's NFTs
April 1 2021

"It's not all about the money, you know," he said in a rare interview with a Fuller Institute executive in 2018, in which he spoke about his calling as an investor and his Christian faith. "It's about the long term, and God certainly has a long-term view."

One of World's Greatest Hidden Fortunes Is Wiped Out in Days
April 5 2021

When people talk about minig alliances, do they know which kind of alliances they are talking about?
Conventional mining? Crypto mining? Could there be a hybrid model? The transnational alliance, that spans cross verticals?
Funny thing. There are several. Information is openly available in wikipedia or on youtube.
No, there will be no links.

April 7 2021

Got a first question in 4 years that might make sense (from defi group just found today). Here is the answer.

The simplest - I can provide tradable indicator(s) for (any) crypto currency.
A bit better would be to blend them with multicharts, also there are many things around Solidity.
(Just porting subset of Solidity to BTC stack will be good enough).
Can do simple pooling also. Just need to find somebody outside norcal.

So in general. Simplest pragmatic moves on (any) DeFi:

1. Indicators.
2. Trading station.
3. Solidity subsets.
4. Pooling.

April 9 2021

Fugured out nice NFT angle.
Figured out how to use BTC ATM.

April 10 2021

Figured out ultimate approach to trading BTC. It's from the 70s. Who would have though.
Also: tether has 39 days left, or sell to show, or sell to get out

"You'd Have To Shut Down The Internet" To Ban Bitcoin, Says SEC's Hester Peirce
"The government would immediately wipe out $2 trillion in net wealth" - I don't think they care.
No, there is *no* need to shut down the internet to block bitcoin traffic.
Massive application-level blockade is possible, I've seen it earlier this year - documented it here (February 2)

Another nice thing from that article is this image:

It shows BTC as middle ground between USD and EUR. This corresponds to my calculations from January 27
I simplify things a *lot* of course, because leverage distorts the picture, of course. So should be accurate when calling "Crypto" BTC.
Having said that - they are all pegged to the same stuff.
And they're keeping the peg. It is *possible* to break the peg, but good luck breaking delicate flowers.
Not recommended.

Another important article today. Things are getting hot.

Why Is The Bitcoin Curve So Steep... And Could A Bitcoin ETF Be The Worst Possible Thing For Crypto

But many institutional investors do not have access to Bitcoin, owing to concerns around custody, ambiguities around taxation and accounting, reputational risk and the origin of some tokens, and other potential issues." This is hilarious because back in December, when looking at the most recent Fund Manager survey, we said that Wall Street professionals were convinced that Bitcoin is becoming the most crowded trade on Wall Street, which as we said was impossible for the simple reason that most of these same "professionals" were not even involved in bitcoin. And now JPMorgan admits as much.

To people, who still don't understand. *Nobody* has access to Bitcoin. Except Miners and those, whom Miners allow access. Basically, it's like that petrodollar thingy, that goes on since 70s. Sanctions and stuff.

Thats why : Peter Thiel: China Using Bitcoin as a "Financial Weapon"
April 11 2021.

Mathematics looks like a scam to people, who don't know it. And that's a *lot* of people.
LTC was not a scam
April 12 2021.

NFTs are just starting.
They can be used to replace every other crypto, they are superset.
That's why they cost millions. Early adoption → commoditization.
They are far from commoditization. It's a next gold mine in plain sight, like bitcoin was few years ago.

my tweet
Regulated exchanges are joining the crypto show. This thing is going to bust.
Nothing can possibly survive the size of leverage they are piling up.
So the (only) question now is ... We are being set up for a series of "negative oil" explosions.

If my models are correct, stablecoins and NFTs will be the *only* possible antidote.
Most likely, we are entering the Chineese scenario in which exchange leaders move to some island.
After all the traders lose their shirts.
Every month of something. I forgot how frequent they had it.
Looks inevitable.

April 13 2021

Talked to this powerhouse, they offer fantastic tooling.
The powerhouse understands what I want to do with their software and they see no problem.
This is their product.
They have all the tools in the open.

Combining their tools with some other stuff (that already exists) it is possible to provide 10x of what they offer.
The numbers are from reality, there is a gap between two industries. ('old world' and 'new world')

April 14 2021

Game Over for Bullies
Game Over for cyberbullies.
Their monopoly license to print money has been revoked as of today.
(I only report things after they happen, predicting things is a sloppy business).

April 15 2021

Very interesting. Apple now holds the license. Question is for how long.
Update: They say "sorry, but we will keep destroying all this stuff here... thank you, idiots."
License not revoked. It is now shared.

Learned about this today. Pretty consistent.

'Big Short' trader Michael Burry quits Twitter

Investor Michael Burry may have deleted his entire Twitter account on Tuesday, a move that comes just weeks after the famous short-seller told his followers that his tweets about GameStop Corp. GME, -6.06% and other market trends had prompted a visit from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

No followers - no problem.
April 17 2021

Iconic Retail Investor "Roaring Kitty" Doubles Down On Gamestop, Now Owns 200,000 Shares

Couple of Unknowns for the Home Gamers:

- Based on the Latest Screenshot, Headband Guy's break even is about $55 per share on his portfolio of 200,000 shares, which includes the 50000 shares he just optioned at $12 per share. Implying a $69.33 per share break even on the 150,000 non optioned shares.

- Where did Headband Guy get the additional funds to buy the total amount of 150000 shares at an average price of $69.33 per share? ($69.33*150000= $10,400,000)

- What is Headband Guy's total margin in this account or total portfolio margin?

There are some traders (in France and Japan) that are systematicaly losing money, but they stay in the trade still. There was at least one French dude actually got a large bonus for losing some large amounts. How is that possible? It's possible, because that's their job. (global) Trading is a bit more complex, than most people think. For example, every time Musk sells a Tesla, that makes some person in Singapore a little bit more happy. They might not even know why they are a bit happier. They might never know.

Greenspan Put (1987) introduced an insurance for any productive activity in USA (even it was stupid). That created an unbreakable business machine. Greenspan Age of Turbulence (2007) - which was +20 years - introduced another insurance so US financial industry is *still* unbreakable, even when the accumulated stupidity started to destroy the business machine. The dude is 95 y/o. Republican. Current cycle ends in 2027.

Broker's Dilemma

Price drop - 10% - I seen it in the making yesterday. I predicted it here Apr 12. I did *not* bet on that.

Controlled demolition.
Will not destroy my approach, but a *lot* of people will be losing a *lot* of money now, because leveraged derivatives on BTC are now trading on *regulated* US exchanges as of last week.

I wonder how many brokers will stay alive next 4 years.

Broker's Dilemma they have is this:

1. Don't let crypto in == miss on *ton* of capital.
2. *Let* crypto in == get a margin call (Negative Oil Scenario. Robinhood GameStop Scenario)

April 18 2021

Law abiding citizen dilemma

There is now only one place on this planet where US citizens can legally make money on crypto.
Interestingly, by doing so, US citizens will be destroying the USA.
Decisions, decisions.

Bitcoin Crashes As Much As 15% Amid Unsubstantiated Report Of Money Laundering Crackdown

The market-wide crash has in $1.72 billion worth of long positions liquidated in just one hour alone. Expanding this range to 24-hours shows that 927,000 traders' positions worth nearly $10 billion were wiped off, with $68.73 million being the largest liquidation so far according to FX street.

The story says it was triggered by some twit or whatever. Reality is that market makers did it. (My engines captured that). This is how 'negative oil' looks like. (Traders lost, whales are 'ok', exchanges are 'ok', insiders made a killing)

April 19 2021

Tyler says: 40K

Where did the proceeds from BTC hit job went? Into FX they went.

I will create a cryptocurrency like bitcoin for you

Trading financial instruments is *not* 50/50 game. Betting is also *not* 50/50 game. I am not sure if throwing the coin is 50/50 game. Maybe if a special coin flipping machine throws it. "Guildenstern and Rosencrantz are dead" talks about this in detail.

April 21 2021

The Bankers Are Coming! The Bankers Are Coming... For Your Bitcoin

"We regard Bitcoin and stablecoin as crypto assets ... These are investment alternatives," Li Bo, deputy governor of the PBOC, said on Sunday during a panel hosted by CNBC at the Boao Forum for Asia.
"They are not currency per se. And so the main role we see for crypto assets going forward, the main role is investment alternative" he added.

April 23 2021

My tweet
Coinbase went IPO and Bitcoin lost 15% wiped out all the retail traders. 
Robinhood filed for IPO March 23. 
They don't yet have a ticker
The day they get a ticker on NASDAQ would be an interesting day for US stock market.
Which is not particularly sane.

April 24 2021

Now I understand why all the (recent) lunacy in trading.
Second wave of COVID will "level everything up" (like the first one did), so crazy gamblers are having a field day. Again.

Dozens Arrested After CEO Of Turkish Crypto Exchange Flees With $2 Billion

"One can establish a crypto exchange with just 50,000 liras (about $6,000) in capital," Oguz Evren Kilic, a lawyer representing Thodex users, said by phone. "There's a huge regulatory gap in this field."

I predicted this : Apr 12
April 26 2021

My tweet
Well, looks like crypto is now all grown up and has to find their own way.
It looks like insider trading line from "old world" to "new world" had been disconnected, 
so the crypto market makers now will fly blind. Like everybody else. 
It's been interesting 4 years of insanity.

April 27 2021

My tweet
BTC is pumped up by shorts.
Who would have thought.
This is sarcasm.

April 28 2021

My tweet

"Somebody" is building a supreme weapon to wipe out USA and they are doing that on USA dime. In plain sight. Damn shame.

April 29 2021

My tweet
As per CME, the market cap of All Cryptos is equal to USD in circulation. 
The "astonishing jump" was Sep 2020 till now.
My tweet
Crypto  *doubled* the amount of money in circulation on this planet,
*but* most of it is in Asia!

Mining is in Asia. Nothing in Middle East.

April 30 2021

My tweet

1. Good currency has to be bootstrapped.
2. Good currency has to be forked.

There are brilliant people around any tech.

May 02 2021

My tweet
So all those US regulated brokers are now going all in with gigantic gambling bets on crypto,
but they don't allow you to deploy in crypto. You need to "go to your friendly banker".
They're really lost at this point. I am using polite wording here.
My tweet
Forex industry is in deep trouble. 
They somehow managed to miss the bubble the size of their industry.

What is forex anyway? A little layer above commodities one would say. Wiped out by crypto. Slight change in dynamics can wipe out any engine. Most of FX signal providers degrade in one year.

May 04 2021

Dogecoin hit .50

My tweet
dogecoin is a *very* serious project. 
it's not funny at all, of course. 
it's a weapon, basically. 
and it works.

May 05 2021

For the ruined, Turkey's crypto crackdown comes too late

1. Inflation
2. Confiscated gold
3. Polulation tries to protect with BTC (because unregulated)
4. Exhange owner miscalculates capacity.
5. 'Regulated' Citadel / Robinhood was simply bailed out.
6. Nobody can bail out crypto exhange that got margin call (15% drop of BTC was the margin call)

May 07 2021

Musk will *not* be pumping up another $1.5 Bln into BTC. The CFO of the largest hedge fund will do that now.

Watch: Elon Musk Calls Crypto "Speculation", Says People "Should Not Invest Their Life Savings" In It
CFO Of World's Largest Hedge Fund Quits To Join Bitcoin Company
Goldman Announces Formation Of New Crypto Trading Desk