I study Bitcoin for a while now (crypto-peaks.com is my website, it runs one old version, I made a bit of progress since then)Zero knowledge proof - read it.
So, you want to do another Dash fork
Short answer : don't
At this point of the game it makes little sense. Better find some existing powerhouse and help them. The question is not how long the fork will take, but would it be allowed to happen at all. Miners don't like when somebody disrupts the status quo and they have lots of power. Obviously. I've been contacted about dash forks several times by this time. One of the last McAfee projects was a dash fork. I have a way to make your project happen, but it will not be the way you want. Instead of running towards a disaster, first need to build defense. Defense will be your own token (like fuse.io) then circulation, then bonding curve. It's not a big deal really. Just do what this guy did: Story of Energi - (Not an endorsement of their timeline, but it's endorsement of their method, that can be applied to pretty much any case).
October 22 2021
For the 4 letter words, let time be X then ROI(fork) = 1/X but ROI(rewrite) = k*X^2. k = F(market cap)
May 31 2022
V(n+1) = V(n) + n, but in reality V(n+1) = V(n) + k*n, where k = F(n+1) and k is a sigmoid of sorts
Jun 19 2022
For a supply chain length N, reliability becomes a function of (k*N) , *not* 1/(k*N) - k is still a sigmoid, but let's forget about it. In a nutshell, "less autarky for territory, more for individual" is the net positive. The exact opposite is "more autarky for territory, less for individual". Currently there are very few zones of insanity on this planet, but their number grows.
Jul 10 2022
Either I'm wrong, or they are wrong by one letter. I think they are wrong by one letter. Reality will resolve
Jun 19 2022
They are definitely wrong by one letter. How many people understand crypto at all, I wonder? A little gap between intuition and reality can consume countries. Because intuitively they implement the same formulas, only intuition is not a replacement for calculus. "Flat Earth" is comforting for a while, until it is not.
Jun 20 2022
Energi peoples removed the blueprint but it is still in archives
Jun 02 2022
Figured out *why* green Energi peoples removed their blueprint. Green are oh so shy. And that will get them in the end.
Jul 16 2022
Why bitcoin is unique:
1) Fungibility: Unlike other commodities (like oil, wheat or even gold), there are no varieties, purities or geographical versions of bitcoin. A bitcoin is a bitcoin. 2) Transportability: Bitcoin has no physical manifestation. As a result, it can be instantly transported from one location to another, anywhere in the world, at a cost approaching zero. 3) Exchange Tradability: Most commodities trade over-the-counter or rely on representative, derivative futures contracts because they lack the characteristics listed above. Bitcoin is unique in that it trades directly on exchange, allowing for open price discovery
October 26 2021
The head of the snake is in Europe
November 03 2021
What is my angle
I do bonding curves. It's not much, but I do them better, than many people on this planet. They moved all the people, who do that, from USA to HK. The last ship sailed a few months ago.
- In this 'crypto bubble' the only thing that they care about is how much (legal) money you can make using your idea (whatever the idea is).
- They don't fund nobody (that's by design, the logic is that if you can't make money trading, you don't know what you're talking about).
- Not only they don't fund, they take pride in trying to steal from you (because "should be solid") basically, there are many unspoken rules in that crypto bubble.
November 04 2021
What is Bitcoin?
They ask many people about it recently and (professional) people tell bunch of nonsense. The reason is that we all have our limits. "Internet is a series of tubes" was not really far off. If Internet is a series of tubes to transfer bits and bytes, Bitcoin is a bunch of bits and bytes. With *huge* (but hidden) humanitarian payload attached to those bits and bytes. And the process only begun 4 years ago. Or 2000 years ago. Or 5000 years. Depends whom you ask.
November 05 2021
So, you want to do your latest and greatest BlockchainShort answer: don't
Pick up after 2018 vintage. There is (was) a surplus. Can start with pink one.
November 17 2021
Put down your forks
Many open source projects lose their way after the dude, who wrote the core engine - disappears. Bitcoin is no exception. The BCH was the way out, but they missed the opportunity. There is no need to fork codebases to do a fork. Original Bitcoin engine had everything to scale out. Still has. I figured out a way do NFTs on BTC. No fork.
November 27 2021
Was only possible by introducing a major distraction. In non-random world, Frequentism beats Bayesian systems. The more randomness - the stronger Bayesian system becomes.
December 12 2021
Crypto scammers are cornered
Behavior of crypto scammers turned erratic, aggressive and toxic.
December 13 2021
Formula of Classic fintech Formula of Crypto fintech Formula of Last Few Years
December 14 2021
9/10ths of the total BTC supply has now been issued. Remaining 10% of supply set to be minted over the next 119 years or so, ending somewhere near the year 2140.
What once was a reliable outflow of spending from miner wallets has shifted since 2019, and miners are now depositing more minted supply into their treasuries than before. The chart below shows the 90-day sum of Miner Netflow Volume (in USD) as a percentage of Market Cap, and the multi-year rise is evident. If miners evolve into being HODLers, a group who are naturally incentivized to spend, then acquiring new Bitcoin into the future could become exceedingly difficult.
Some people know digital. Some people know biology. Some people know politics. Nobody can know the whole three things equally well. Impossible. There is also aspect of knowing / doing.
December 21 2021
IOU on BTC
It is missing and there is zero justification for that. It's very simple to implement and the only barriers are legislative. Now that I think about it, all those fortunes created in USA, they were all purely legislative. For example, Pay Pal was given a legal monopoly on Internet money. Nobody can go bankrupt being the only Internet money on the whole planet. Same with Amazon - accounting trick. One click patents. All legislative plays. Crypto is of course the same.
December 23 2021
Taleb on BTCBitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility
Cryptocurrencies require a sustained amount of interest in them.
The charts in his PDF say it peaked. I'm not sure about "zero", though.
The PDF has no date on it.
Jan 01 2022
KazakhstanBitcoin slumps to a three-month low
Many crypto miners fled China for neighboring Kazakhstan over Beijing's ban on virtual currency mining. Kazakhstan's internet shutdown took as much as 15% of the network offline, according to some estimates.
Edgy calm in Kazakhstan
But NetBlocks, a global Internet monitor, said that connectivity was still at about five percent of normal levels as of Saturday morning.
Jan 08 2022
This smart contracts stuff is no good. To actually create value need to fix it a little bit. Here is the fix. Transparent contracts on blockchain with retainer and collateral directed towards Trump, not towards the worker. On BTC chain. Yes, it's possible.
The wise contract is the exact opposite of smart contract. De Niro talked about it openly, nobody listened. Smart contract requires the worker to provide collateral for transactions to happen. Wise contract requires the manager to provide collateral for transactions to happen.
Current crypto bubble is stacked against the skilled labor. Current crypto bubble is a semantic trickery that is wearing thin. "Proof of Work" has nothing to do with Work, "Proof of Stake" has nothing to do with Stake etc.
First wise contract can be implemented over existing ETH blockchain in a matter of days. Only after it is implemented over ETH the question becomes : "Why ETH?"
Feb 08 2022
Negative Oil is not the end
The next bubble is supposed to burst about 10-12 months from now. If that happens, it will "cover up" for crypto bubble, like real estate crash covered for internet bubble crash. No, not stawks.
Microsoft Looking To Hire 'Head Of Crypto' - the crypto bubble is over.
Mar 01 2022
Europe is the only place, who has both miners and traders
Ukrainian coders are moved to Poland. Russian / Belorussian coders are moved to Serbia. So now Europe has coders also. It also has all the Russian Oligarch yachts (for free).
Mar 10 2022
No matter what you do with crypto, you have to figure out:
distribution legislation cash flow
There is also, of course, technology, but that's a tool. The trick is that if you only figure out one or two legs, you (still) lose. And in crypto "lost" means "dead". AKA quadriga.
First (professional) anti-Bitcoin article in San Jose Mercury News. Clearly, they plan to bury crypto now by:
Implementing digital dollar ('legal crypto') Tightening KYC ('illegal crypto')In that article, they're missing one important technical moment. Described on this page.
Mar 12 2022
EU Vote Which Could 'Practically' Ban Key Digital Currencies EU voted to keep Bitcoin.Nancy Pelosi: "Government Spending Reduces Debt" - Nancy Pelosi is the greatest politician.
Another day, another article against crypto in SJMN. This time it's against DAO.
Mar 13 2022Ethereum 2.0 -- Finally, the crypto battle is about to get real. I can actually tell you how BTC can crush ETH, it's described on this page. Technically that's rather easy. ETH can also crush BTC, yes. And you know what? Both can be destroyed overnight with a stroke of a pen. So I'm a little bit undecided about this crypto thingy now. It's nice that the guy in orange pijamas is beginning to notice that "Crypto itself has a lot of dystopian potential if implemented wrong". No shit, Sherlock. Maybe you should discuss that with Greta, on her yacht. While you sail towards one of Obama's mansions. Pyromania is a bitch.
Mar 26 2022
Figured out how to do DAO on BTC.
Apr 02 2022
Figured up the insanity of flash loans. Typical NY stuff.
Apr 03 2022
(Made by User:Golbez. - Own work, CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=996182)
'MAGA' - 'Back to 1822!'
Also, this is aligned with crypo activities.
They are different across the zones.
Apr 04 2022
The Inflation / Deflation Vortex (no, not just good old inflation, the Vortex only exists since 2016) will destroy *everybody* in US IT. (For a simple reason that IT is not a commodity). The question is not "if" it is "when". Anybody who is doing *any* IT work in the US is kind of doomed (the exact same way everybody doing IT work in Ukraine / Russia / Belorussia was doomed). All those people (100s thousands) were assuming that "we do everything right, accumulating those skills". And they *were* right. Until everything changed for them. Overnight. It's related to Automation Paradox. Some part of Automation Paradox is described here : Datacenters. I need to write down the Automation Paradox, maybe will do that some day.
Apr 06 2022
Figured out the *only* possible approach to NFTs. There is lots of noise, sure. That's the vertical of art. Art needs noise.
Apr 17 2022
NFTs collapsed. 99%. Art is tricky.
Years after calling Bitcoin 'rat poison,' Warren Buffett just invested $1 billion in a crypto-friendly bank
Apr 19 2022
Figured out USDT Shenanigans. Looks like that stuff is what fuels atrocities in EU.
Apr 22 2022Michael Saylor is Secretly Selling His Bitcoin and Doesn't Want You To Know The interesting moment here, how do you lose $13 Bln.
The only problem with Mathematics. Mathematics is a set of mental methods. All of the objects are in fact ideal. They do not exist in real life. As a result, nobody can actually *see* if the formula is correct or wrong. Different with physics / chemistry / biology anything else (they have *experiment*). Math has no experiment. Except computer. Computer validates the sneaky math. Program gives the solid answer - or it does not. That's why the battle will always be the way it is now. Speaking from personal experience. There is one major data structure in crypto that mathematicians see as unbeatable. Problem is - I was asked to beat that puzzle (several times) when I was interviewed by (strong) mathematicians - for computing position. And I solved it. Computer is not mathematics. Computer is a physical object. Very much physical object.
Apr 25 2022
Robinhood To Fire 9% Of Full-Time Employees
Apr 26 2022
HR and Corporate Lawyers. 2011.
May 01 2022
Set of simple binary automatas can produce rather complex process (especially if you add/remove some at will), but that does not mean that any complex process can be decomposed into set of simple binary automatas. Similar to billiard balls paradox.
Here is a novel business idea. Broker, who does not steal client's money. Yes, it got *this* bad. Also - blockchain, that guarantees finality. Again - it got *this* bad.
This means leveraged DEX on BTC is a killer app. Non-collateralized.
May 02 2022
May 03 2022
"You may fool people for a time; you can fool a part of the people all the time; but you can't fool all the people all the time"
"We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality"
May 04 2022
Purim and Passover in Goebbels' Castle you can easily find this on one search engine, but you cannot find this on another search engine. The internet is being split.
Business is a set of (simple) conventions. Now and then there comes a crazy idiot, who ecourages people to violate the (simple) conventions. Those, who violate simple conventions ... They will not last long. Yes, it's this simple.
May 05 2022
Moore's law covers industrial computing. Consumer electronics is covered by Mikhail Donskoy's law.
Figured out a simple test for any ML person. Most of them have no idea about ML, of course. (Aspects vs algos)
If some activity has a binary outcome, computer will always beat human being in that activity. Not even binary, actually. Binary is a corner case of a set. I uderstand this sounds like a theorem. Because it is.
Neural Networks approach to Chess was suboptimal, but adequate for those acient times. So were many other engines. Relational Database for example.
May 06 2022
This internet thing. It's not really decentralized. The crypto thing ... It is a bit better decentralized, but it's a toy mostly, kind of easy to break. The internet thing was not a toy, it was an industry. Also, internet thing was open. Crypto is a club. Open systems always beat clubs in a long run. Some laws are very hard to break.
The (only) force of crypto bubble? Laws of physics. Electricity is (much) easier to produce, than to transport. After US switched to digital, USD became (too) easy to produce (because no printing) and easy to transport (internet).
Crypto stack is a Pyramid, like everything else:Reversed.
May 07 2022
Few rules. Not mine.
100% winners do not exist. Chase the value, not the mirage "Best bet", "all in" - does not exist. Next day is the "best bet" Fundamentals beat statistics "Specialization" is bullshit. Go where you feel like going
These rules filter out most of the traders. Yes, it's possible to win piles of money on stawks and have no idea what you're doing. Very possible.
First serious contenders for ETH are beginning to emerge. They want to stay under radar. They are not Turing complete. Any usable VM will do. Easy money. It's obvious that VM can not possibly be a defensible IP in a vertical that only cares about money.
May 08 2022
If after today you *still* don't understand how BTC works - you should not touch it without adult in the room.
When somebody openly and loudly talks crap about (dangerous) person X - usually means they are with that person. Obvious, right?
Defence by burning used to work. On the way up.
Run on crypto banks started.
May 09 2022
To understand crypto shenanigans one has to understand the outcome of a Duel between Burbakists and Russian Academia. I need to write this down because few months ago I found a (major) bug in the transcript of the Duel and the side effects of that are major. I also found a bug in one of key mathematical whitepapers that holds crypto world together. To find a bug one has to be better. Yes, that's how it works.
May 10 2022
Four groups, not counting minor flags.
On upwork there is one European company who is looking for people, who trade $10 Mln / month on Binance and they promise them $600 for consultation? Test session? They are all insane by this time. "Let me go outside and find a trader, who trades $10 Mln". On the internet. "Flat Earth" stuff - going strong.
On craigslist, there is more and more people, who offer prime real estate for barter. Turns out real estate can not feed you when it stays empty for years. Go figure. That reminds me. A year ago there were people on social networks trying to find a buyer for a Datacenter. And it was not a joke.
May 13 2022
This crypto stuff is based on some *really* early work. For example Robert Owen did the similar kind of experiments. Wikipedia labels him as 'philanthropic capitalist'. Not a joke. This means crypto peoples are in 19 century, while the rest of the planet collapses into 17 century. Russia wants to hang on to the beginning of 20-th century. Ukraine wanted to stay in the middle of 20-th century. Nobody wants to stay in 21-st century. "We've seen this 'progress' stuff and it stinks".
Only Paranoid Survive. 1988.
May 15 2022
I think that large number of crypto outfits is being crushed by current bear market, because their models no longer work. To sustain the numbers they *have* to increase the headcount, but they *can not* (people in Europe can't care less about crypto, they have a war on their hands etc etc). Trend is clear. Crypto outfits can not find new people to bring into (existing) pyramids fast enough. So there is a lots of idling pyramids. And runs on some crypto banks. That moves their hiring methods into "fuck you! give us the money! loser!". Which is not particularly reasonable model for growth, indeed. Crypto people do everything backwards. They always push harder. Well, that's the industry of bullies with "HODL! Paper hands!". Whoever put this con in motion did amazing job to make sure that *nobody* profits from this bubble.
Some territories are beyond repare by this point. They don't understand, but it's obvious. Trolling does that to people.
May 16 2022
Web 1.0 had "fucked company" website. Web 3.0 has : https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ -- the key difference? fucked company had a message board. Open system vs Closed system.
Cautionary Tales from Cryptoland - Interview with a nice lady who runs that site and there is a lots of contrarian URLs in that article.Supply Chain
As long as you have the servers running in right jurisdiction and distributed nicely, and as long as you have a way to boost the outputs, everything should work out no matter what you do really. This crypto thing has a shortcut which is supply chain done right, it's rather remarkable how they are squashing all the non-Asian supply chains for 4+ years, but it would not be possible soon. By this time there are only two places on this planet that produce super-yields, so the whales no longer have enough plankton, actually. Well, when the wannabe whale is running out of gas, they (always) try to steal all the money and run. Only I think that by this time running is not an option actually. After few bankers got slaughtered in Europe (recently) carrying $500 Mln on them, I don't think anybody believes that running with money is any kind of a solution. Yet that was the corner stone of the industry. So - optimization of supply chains is the next step. My page describes how. Starts with $5/month. If you don't have that much money - that might be a problem.
May 17 2022
Poll by Musk
Twitter claims that >95% of daily active users are real, unique humans. Does anyone have that experience?
To estimate a percentage of bots on twitter all you need to do is a simple script that looks at random accounts and generates a percentage of bots on average. It's the most trivial trick called 'sampling' and it's been used in USA for 100+ years. It's an obvious trick. Musk is from Pay Pal. They know accounting.
"In the last month, crypto has lost $1 trillion in market cap".
"Bitcoin prices have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, a new record".
Plenty of activity in crypto real estate. Spike.
May 18 2022
Crypto outfits have only one major strategic flaw. It looks like they are all exposed to that very flaw. Sure, they have some funny problems here and there, but one flaw that is major. And decisive. Buterin does *not* have that flaw. Which is an interesting moment.
May 20 2022
How a Trash-Talking Crypto Founder Caused a $40 Billion Crash this article had been reprinted verbatim by SJMN.
May 23 2022
If you plan to say something like "things are just crazy!" - better say nothing at all.
After Luna-Terra crash Terra backers vote to revive luna - but not UST - after $60 billion crypto collapse - the stablecoin died, but the algo-peg is kept. That was few days ago. Today - new players now introduce the exact same offerings. Stablecoin + algo-peg. What can possibly go wrong? (Well, actually exactly the same thing will go wrong). Crypto is basically moving into Russian roulette territory. Burning $1 trillion in a single month is hard work. How would you do that? Hard stuff.
May 25 2022
I thought I knew European classical music kind of "ok". Turns out - I had no idea about 20th century. There are few channels on Youtube, who publish a piece a day. There is less than 1 Mln people listening to them. Similar with guitar music. On a surface it looks different, because guitar is very democratic, only it's not really that different.
Turns out terminator was a transformer after all. 1984.
Gitcoin's Quadratic Funding? About the same time. 1984. The stuff *really* made some waves. In Europe. In general, they are correct about Sybil attacks easily possible on DAO, but there *is* a protection from that. And the person, whose designs they are now implementing - the guy not only knew about this but also clearly described how to defend from Sybil attacks. He openly and clearly was telling that in his interviews for decades. It's on youtube. Only it is not in English. And the guy is dead now. The usual. McAfee was in English
The below italics is from today's issue of Wired. You *have* to read it. Wired rules.
Switch your wallet from Etherium mainnet to the Gnosis chain to claim your LMAO tokens. Sync your tokens with the collab.land Discord bot to prove you're a member and get access to the locked Discord channels.
WARNING: Users enter into transactions at their own risk; Web3 is not responsible for money lost, NFTs stolen, passwords phished, or dreams shattered in the course of this experiment. The edifice of Web3 is built on trillions of dollars invested in cryptocurrencies that, as yet, have little to no proven utility other than as speculative assets. Liquidity is provided by baroque financial products that average investors can't understand, which may end badly. Decentralization may or may not be a technological feature of systems, as opposed to a market condition, and thus is not actually guaranteed. Many decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are neighter decentralized nor autonomous. Past hopes of fully decentralized, participatory versions of the internet have been repeatedly dashed. It might be unwise to put personal data on a permanent uneditable public database. It may not be possible to disentangle the idelistic aspirations of Web3 from the cynical profit-seeking behavior exhibited by much of the crypto market, which is heavily concentrated in the hands of a small number of superrich people and institutions. People tend to find ways to game systems despite the best intentions of those systems' designers. Results may vary.
Crypto penetrated 10% of US households. 90% of bitcon had been mined. It will take 100 years to mine the rest 10%.
May 26 2022
Proof-Of-Work Vs. Proof-Of-Stake: Why Bitcoin Won't Change
Now we are talking. Because 10% of households are penetrated but the 90% can't even begin to care about crypto (so they just keep the money in the bank, allright) - the pyramids are now idling and if the new peoples are not recruited *ASAP* the pyramid holders will get in a bit of trouble. And those who gave the funds to crypto pyramids - they don't really like their funds to vanish. So there will be questions.
What can possibly be done to grow the numbers? Well, people are not giving the funds because they can't even understand what's going on, so let's try to educate the masses a little bit. And so the media now need to start educating. And the media now tries their best. Yesterday issue of Wired! The best journalism on crypto *ever*. Today ZH writes the *first* reasonable crypto article on funamentals. "The POW or POS?" Good question. I asked it myself 3 years ago. And the answer is POP. And it's described on this page. Here is another idea. Ledger is a reflection of the data. It's a passive storage. It can not possibly produce data on itself. There was already a system that's effectively a giant passive storage. It's called the Internet. Check it out. (And read the Wired piece. It's awesome.)
Paradise at the Crypto Arcade: Inside the Web3 Revolution
May 27 2022
I have a suspicion that some *really* expensive real estate had been sold at least twice. To people with guns. Maybe even more than twice. And the sellers are all gone, of course. With the money.
This page effectively describes alternative take on NFT (on BTC) and DAO (Sybil immunity + Byzantine). Also it hints on fakeness of PoW / PoS dilemma. If you don't understand something - that's OK. This stuff is 40 y/o - most likely happened before you were born. Certainly before Vitalik was born. Kolomna is a nice town. Or should I say "was?". It is not Moscow, though. It is more on a military side of things. Moscow was not. This means we have conversion, only backwards. Civil designs - weaponized. This inflation/deflation stuff is vicious. Stupidity always is.
May 28 2022
Stores running out of food, casinos running out of gamblers. IT is running out of IT. Next step - (many) banks running out of money.
May 29 2022
As per SJMN, Delft University just closed this Tulip mania with a set of actual physical experiments. All it takes now is a few drivers. If the article is to be trusted, of course. Also, who is going to write those adapters, I wonder. They say China. I have doubts. I seen drivers written in China. Point is - the battle between US and EU is far from over. This also explains Wired's angle.
May 30 2022
May 31 2022
Jun 03 2022
SJMN - another day another article. The bill is ready in NY that will basically not let some NY factories burn Gas to Mine Crypto. They were actually burnning Gas to Mine Crypto in NY. They also did that in TX. So the big question is if TX is next. Not to mention industrial real estate of course. Let's ignore the fact the issue exists. (The industrial real estate building near the place where I live is empty for 8+ years).
Jun 04 2022
Mark Twain says that Paige lost to Linotype. I am wondering how did that happen. Piage's approach was more advanced, I think. It could well be that his requirements for more advanced operator were simply on purpose. Wikipedia has all the info. The usual. Well, both Paige and Twain were lucky enough to die before 1917, so they had rather idealistic view about that 'progress' thing.
Jun 05 2022
If you're in crypto industry and you have not seen (and understood) the Fifth Element, you have a blind spot.
New York State Senate Passes Bitcoin Mining Moratorium
Jun 07 2022
So you're not happy with CEX-es. You think, you found a niche. In a nutshell. You are absolutely correct pointing to weak spots of crypto exchanges. All of those stupidities around exchanges - they do exist. Several years ago there was one very nice Belorussian report to SEC that is published on SEC site. SEC is required by law to publish meeting minutes and they had several meetings about crypto exchanges - publicly available. You might want to read those documents, you will learn many interesting things. Like I did. So - I am not arguing with the "problem" section of your whitepaper. The solution section of your document is the problem. You have no solution. The solution you're looking for is described on this page.
Crypto outlets have very good business people and very good UI people. They have zero technical people. "Coincidence".
One side says "raise the wages, close the borders". Opposite side says "lower the wages, open the borders". No wonder there are some calamities. Only I think this dilemma is a fake one. The actual answer is (always) in terms of tools/automation. Wages/borders has nothing to do with tools/automation. Fake battles. Distractions. Robot vs Android. Two different models.
Jun 08 2022
Larry Ellison is out. He was the last one. 77 y/o. Objectively - he is a very lucky winner.
Jun 10 2022
Cat's Cradle. 1963.
The Suns of Easter Island. 1973.
Jun 11 2022
The "Flat Earth" crap went into overdrive in Eu. Lunatics good for nothing. I hope they stop.
The important crypto bank just collapsed. Maybe an opportunity for smaller crypto banks.
Jun 12 2022
Crypto Trading Cycle Flips: Asia's Now Buying What Americans Are Dumping - party moves to Asia.
Google talking AI -- for illiterate people if something looks like Ai (like Tom Cruz) that means it is Ai (is Tom Cruz). The planet is run by children, basically. Lord of The Flies. 1954.
New route to Africa goes through Poland and Spain. Bosphorus is closed. Ship with 18,000 tons of Ukrainian corn arrives in Spain via new route
Khmer Rouge is unleashed on Ukraine. Started before 2014 even. It's important to remember that UK is *not* part of Eu.
The Great Celsius Implosion: What Went Wrong And How Much More Will Bitcoin Drop
Everybody, who is cloning lendroid in 2022 (yes, there are many) - you're too late.
wBTC was (and is) madness. Only flash loans are comparably toxic (and flash loans actually make sense from pragmatic/physics point of view. wBTC makes zero sense.)
Jun 13 2022
Yes. Party moves to Asia. No doubt about it. It's the part of Green Agenda (comparable to 33 and 71)
Jun 14 2022
Jun 15 2022
Crypto Markets Quiver Amid Three Arrows Capital Solvency Questions
We trade in one of 3AC's trading accounts. This morning they took about ~1m out of our accounts. I hope you pay us back asap
All the lenders probably have about 50bn (estimated) in loan creation...i expect 30-40bn of credit to be destroyed. i.e loans to be recalled and credit to be shrunk.
The article - legit. He was actually optimistic. I got some data from other sources by Jun 19. His estimates are ok.
Jun 16 2022
Tricky hit on distributed supply chain just cornered European politicians. Big time. I don't remember many German chess players. Especially recently. The hit is rather classic chess. Blended with aikido.
So there is only one book on distributed systems worth implementing and surprisingly there is only one engineer, who can implement (or even read) that book. (Me). How did the planet became this narrow this fast, I wonder.
Jun 17 2022
Yu Zhou Xin Min Sheng Village Bank, Shangcai Huimin Country Bank, Zhecheng Huanghuai Community Bank - turns out it is little banks, that are more indicative of the major trends. Surely, all those freshly printed trillions of FX go to China almost directly now, but China is still way too big. Removing videos from tik tok is not going to solve the actual problem.
Jun 18 2022
The communication between European crypto outlets and US is *no*longer*allowed*. As of last week, actually. Eu is going into overdrive. The war in Ukriane is too much, so they have to stop it ASAP, but they can not. What a bunch of degenerates. This is 100% in line with those actions of Chinese banks. Same problems.
Jun 19 2022
Figured out the problem with the Internet. Yes, there is one (and only one). Well, Europe. Is there something in the water maybe? After one figures out the (unfixed) problem of Internet 1.0 it becomes obvious that Web 3.0 is not going to fix it. On another hand, toxicity degrades, nature takes care of it.Distressed Crypto Lender Gets Debt Repayment Reprieve As It Battles For Survival Saylor: On his knees, begging for regulation, down $1.5 billion Celsius: AAAAAAAND IT'S GONE 3AC: Dumpster fire Babel: Life support Bancor: Please Remain Calm! Solana: Rekt Vires: Tick tock tick tock tick tock Luna: MIA Terra: founders banned by Korean govt from leaving the country USDT: Just burned $6.6 billion eBay: Hundreds of rigs for sale Proshares: Launching Short Bitcoin ETF
I could have added a bit more info but I would not. There is some stuff to add to this list. All publicly available info.
Russians are trying to figure out the peg. Where they go everybody will go, so it's actually really damn important. "Governance by stealing and burning everything to cover the steal" is some really messed up economic policy. Indeed.
Jun 20 2022
Miner behaviours now confirm that an ongoing miner capitulation phase is underway. The first piece of evidence is the hash-ribbons, which have now inverted, as hashrate falls 10% off the ATH and signifies mining ASIC rigs are coming offline.
The Ethereum DeFi market is undergoing a dramatic deleveraging, with over $124B (?) in capital flushed out in just six weeks. The Ethereum investor base is now heavily underwater on spot positions, and is locking in historically large realized losses.
Miners are now under significant financial stress, with BTC trading near the estimated cost of production, incomes well below their yearly average, and hash-rate noticeably coming off ATHs. The aggregate market has realized over $7 Billion in losses this week, with Long-term Holders contributing some 178k BTC in additional sell-side.
Karen, Sailor, Fencing. Visual Poetry (Only one dude did it in Baltics states, but nobody comes close to him. Nobody can even begin to understand how come) Poetry in general can be pushed towards music and towards visual. Very few people go visual.
Figured out retail angle. That was the hardest.
Today's SJMN business section basically yells at people. Nobody is reading still. I think they literally can't read.
Jun 21 2022
War in Eu begins. That's why Eu crypto links were chopped off (Jun 18).
Some brokers go belly up. I rememeber Volcano erupted on one of those Islands. That was in the beginning of pandemic. Now it is "We're screwed, sorry!"
Jun 22 2022
FX flows frozen in Ru. A *lot* of brokers will go belly up. This also explains a bit strange business climate in Eu. Last few years. This means this year they eliminated their own FX hub - with their own hands. It already happened. 1917. Joking about anything - no longer safe.
Signal providers are switching to managed accounts. That is great news for indicator makers. The chain is: (platform) - indicator - signal - account - (broker) - (bank).
As of 2020 there is no civilization, but the parts remain. Exactly how it was after collapse of SU. SU expats remember this movie really well. Talk to SU expat, he will tell you your future.
Goldman Raising $2 Billion To Buy Distressed Celsius Assets
The problems in Eu started when they started to ask about 74 genders in the forms.
Jun 24 2022
It might be that the only purpose of the Valley is to annoy NY and LA. If that's true, Valley is still doing it's job.
Jun 25 2022
I find it unusual that nuclear superpowers are (massively) killing people using the crappy (not even drones) drones they buy overseas.
Jun 26 2022
Brokers are going belly up. Need stimulus.
Jun 27 2022
The biggest Chemical Conglomerate in the world is about to go belly up without Russian Gas. Supply Chain.
Jun 28 2022
"Too Big To Fail" right before collapse.
Supply chains weak links.
20 years cycles in the Valley.
"Not thinking about white monkey".
Jun 29 2022
All it takes to break the crypto peg is Reverse MLM. It's technically possible, but once done there might be no way back. Was possible 2 years ago, is even more possible now (because keeping the peg to a burning building is a losing proposition. Shorts will be happy now. Nobody can possibly squeeze them. For a while.)
Jun 30 2022
Some countries are overinvested in crypto. Some countries are overinvested in insanity. Some places are overinvested in both things.
Jul 01 2022
Jul 02 2022
The list of transformational special zones/portals
Silicon Valley . Sao Paulo . Shutoken . Kansai . North Italy . Baden-Wurttemberg
Catalonia . Phuket . Singapore . Johor . Riau islands
The second list is a bit distorted it was hard for me to translate. The first list is incomplete.
This also explains local invasion of last 2 weeks. And a change of governance.
Basically all the changes now are rather unavoidable.
Jul 03 2022
"What everyone wants, everyone resists, the result is what no one wanted." Google simply can not find this. It finds "Abilene paradox". Which is absolutely useless.
Jul 04 2022
Bitcoin has locked in one of the worst monthly price performances in history, with prices trading down -37.9% in June. Bitcoin has seen a near complete expulsion of market tourists, leaving the resolve of HODLers as the last line standing.
Exchange reserves continue to drain, as participants find renewed momentum towards self custody. These coins appear to be flowing into wallets with no history of spending, and the balance growth and exchange withdrawal activity of both Shrimp and Whale cohorts are at historically aggressive levels.
The withdrawal is because brokers go belly up stealing all the collateral effectively. How do I know? Guess how do I know. It's "Negative Oil" all over again.
Unregulated currencies. Unregulated brokers. "Now you have it - now you don't". Bunch of loonies good for nothing.
Was set in motion very long time ago. I can even tell you the year it started. And you already know the year.
Eu no longer has a 2 year handicap towards US. US movies, that were on hold for 2 years, are coming out. Eu movies, that were supposed to come out in 2022 are being placed on hold. The tables had turned. I think Eu entities still live in the past (trying to ignore the *war* on their soil - that is going on for 8 years now). Eu politicians are in *real* trouble now. There is simply nothing left to steal from USA. The banquet is over. US mainstreet is broke and stealing from US 1%? Good luck with that.
Figured out how to implement gaming engines for console games like WII. (Box, tennis and all that stuff). Surprisingly, took longer, comparing to Chess, Poker and various mental games.
Dutch Farmers Bring Tank To Fertilizer Protest; Cops Shoot TractorEu is insane for 8 years if not longer. And of course they blame US. Sad.
Jul 05 2022
UK prime minister is out. Georgia Depopulation Stones (500 mln population manifesto) are Blown Up.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe is reportedly showing no signs of life
Jul 07 2022
Sri Lanka collapsed. Also - fertilizers movements are stopped basically. That's 20x more impact than the harvest per se (and there will be no harvest in Ukraine and many other places). Eu sanctioned the fertilizers. The agriculture areas are stagnant since a very long time so the increases of food supply (about 5x or something) was *only* because of fertilizers. Famine is basically guaranteed by this point. Dutch farmers fight is the most important thing that happens, looks like.
Jul 09 2022
Crypto overview in July
Canada had 24 hours outage. UKraine 'non-war' is now obvious to anybody with even a primitive military education. No need to be an expert.
Thank God for English language. Thank God for Mathematics. Good stuff.
One guy got 7 years for calling war - war. Another guy got fined for using quotation marks. Eu is crazy.
The EU's Attack On Bitcoin -- Upon reading this, there will be many stupid people out there who will cry, "This is just semantics!" -- Correction. Not "many stupid people". This is of course semantics. Looks like DeFi crowd finally got what they deserved. Eu found a way to fight back. The idiots had several years to produce value. Time is up.
Jul 10 2022
When a trade becomes obvious - everybody jumps on it. After everybody jumps on it - the trade begins to crack (and that becomes a *very* complex math. Only one country holds the math)
First irreviersible rocket strike today. Idiots keep their idiotic agenda.
99% of brokers are doing things simply wrong, killing liquidity. There should be some way to act on that.
Jul 11 2022
Endgame for some territories. 3 Arrows Capital Founders Go MIA Amidst Crypto Firm's Bankruptcy
Jul 12 2022
At least situation with (stolen) (again) Russian Gold becomes obvious.
Jul 14 2022
Chromebook. It was the most ridiculous offering, so it plummeted first. The world *is* getting back to normal in a way. However - switch from hitech/media mafia to agro/medical mafia will be (is) degrading. No way around it. You resist the degradation - you suffer. You degrade faster, than the world - you die faster, than the world. Positive scenarios ... Go back in time and kill particular degenerates. That's positive, right?
Jul 15 2022
Green is fighting Red. In China. US embassy had (quietly) left Kiev.
If you still have no idea about impact of Islamic Banking on Eu, might as well leave the Earth, like Musk.
They couldn't even scream any more - the 2021 was rather violent year. Poor people gave their life savings into this scheme. Always happens when idiots take control. The exact same stuff was happening in Russia in the 90s. Collapse of USSR. I never blame / mock the victims. Never did, never will.
When Taleb published his 2021 paper, he received so much abuse that he had to lock his Twitter account. "I could not believe how psychopathic bitcoin people were," says Taleb
I find this hard to believe. Taleb is from NY. He did a right thing, though. Now what amazes me - not a single article nor whitepaper talks about the (only) *pragmatic* value of BTC. And that means 1% still has some leverage. Not even Taleb understands! I think he honestly does not understand. They live in Eu in NY. If he had to survive on Asian coast - he would have figured it out.
Celsius is a pretext to ETH
Celsius files bankruptcy
So Celsius people basically stole $5Bln from users and around $1Bln from institutions. And it was actually *really* easy to predict few years ago. They just scaled out some of other schemes that happened on their territories (outside USA). USA is absolutely *not* prepared for fintech attacks, that are debugged outside US (in Eu). What's up with USDT now? If they all go belly up (as they should), BTC might get a boost! And of course, IOU on BTC is possible. And becomes more and more possible with every passing day. This page describes how.
ETH is about to be killed XMR way. "Security vs Commodity". "I think Ethereum is a security, I think it's pretty obvious, [...] it was issued by an ICO, theres a management team, there was a pre-mine, there's a hard fork, there's continual hard forks, there's a difficulty bomb that keeps getting pushed back." Looks like dog eats dog now. If BTC pulls this - they will get a year of life. Maybe more. *Wow*. Will they be able to pull it? Who has more lawyers? Endgame for ETH is here? Because of the *only* pragmatic value BTC has, BTC will be better off finishing ETH, actually! With the key DeFi schemes *already* busted, ETH has no offering! Several years of bullshit for *this*? Well ... Looks like it. Singapore is key. Now I understand why all those ETH outlets are being drained all over the world! Is this the endgame for ETH ??? I think that it is.
Jul 16 2022
HISTORICAL NOTE. The Endgame of XMRCrypto Crime Cartel: The end is nigh for Tether
Or how about when Tether went to great lengths to represent that each Tether (USDT) is backed 1:1 with the U.S. dollar, a position it maintained right up until the point where they had no other option to concede the truth by admitting - via sworn affidavit - that at best, each USDT is backed at a rate of 74%, and not even necessarily by pure U.S. dollars?Tether price manipulation
has become too big to fail. Bitcoin now finds itself a high tech manifestation of the very thing that Satoshi sought to address
The Bit Short: Inside Cryptos Doomsday Machine (Jan 14 2021)Ycombinator
In Short. Any bank with couple Bln $ can collapse the whole crypto ecosystem. The page says how.
To be crystal clear: every time you sell Tethers on Kraken, you are forcing Tether Ltd. to pay you in US dollars. If you can manage to sell enough Tethers for USD on Kraken, then Tether Ltd. will run out of dollars and this whole machine - which currently undergirds 70% of all crypto trading flows - will fall apart.
Updated: January 22 2021
The run of BTC was that *all* the crypto brokers on the planet were mandated to *convert* the Ripple holdings into BTC (hence forcing the demand for BTC! )This was my tweet from January 8.
BTC market cap: $700 Bln. ETH market cap: $149 Bln. LTC market cap: $11 Bln. XRP market cap: $21 Bln. It's dog eat dog. To fuel BTC run they *had* to kill somebody. XRP was the only "somebody" in the room who both had the money and had no protection at the same time.And another tweet from January 3.
Dec 17 - Coinbaise starts going public. Dec 22 - SEC attacks XRP. Dec 31 - Coinbase obeys to attack on XRP. Almost instantly XRP trading halted by (many) brokers (because they look at Coinbase). Jan 1 - crazy run by BTC and (of course!) ETH. *Exactly* as predicted by XRP's CEO.This is by Ripple's CEO : The SEC's Attack on Crypto in the United States (Dec 22 2020)
End of HISTORICAL NOTE
sharding . (perfect) hashing . distributions . number theory . angle trisection
trees vs circles
induction . recursion
infinitesimals, of course . zeno, all that jazz
Jul 17 2022
California's most productive agricultural region is turning into dust, which should concern every American. As a reminder, California produces a quarter of the nation's food -- shrinking crop output is more alarming news that reveals food inflation is becoming structural and won't abate anytime soon
Jul 18 2022
Green is fighting Red on US soil now. Took them 1 week to get here from China! Wow. African COVID is almost here.
Jul 20 2022
Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 -- Rollback of 2011.
Jul 22 2022
Tales From The Crypto: Trapped Celsius Customers Share Financial Horrors
"I moved the bulk of these funds into Celsius in February of 2022 because I would Watch Alex Mashinsky on his weekly AMAs published on YouTube. He reiterated time and time again on Twitter and on these AMAs that the company was over collateralized..." -- 99% certainty. Not good enough, since 2016.
Jul 23 2022
To understand, who is responsible for the horrors of Eu, no need to be rocket scientist. Just check on educational background of people, who governed Eu last 30 years. Hint : whoever had better education - they are (more) responsible. Quantum chemistry is *really* hardcore math.
Jul 23 2022
Coinbase Faces SEC Probe
The SEC's charges put a spotlight on an important problem: the US doesn't have a clear or workable regulatory framework for digital asset securities. - It's repeat of first attack on XRP (security/commodity - see HISTORICAL NOTE above)
The first book is easy to google : "New Class". (Affects the country since Clintons). The second one is impossible to find on google, so here is the link: The Steel Spring. Part 1 is the prequel. The guy told our future. In 1970s he did that. We were not listening. We're still not listening.
Yes, on average, Quantum Chemistry math should be more complex than Quantum Physics math. And yes, plenty of stuff can be approximated with tables.
Jul 26 2022
More and more websites are switching to "if you pay us, we will not torture you with the ads" business model. That was the model of TiVo. TiVo was amazingly cool product. I can't imagine watching US TV without TiVo, back in a day. I have only good memories about the days of TiVo. Yes, youtube. This pagargraph is written after you forced your disgusting ad on me right after a beautiful Bach's piece. I might eventually write an app to chop off your stinking ads. I just figured out the name. Usually that's 50% of the project.
Jul 27 2022
Turns out Eu is firmly positioning itself into 1970s. That was before the FidoNet (1983) and before Minitel (1980). It is only natural they are trying to destroy the Internet, or at least segment it. It's been segmented already in many places. Back to TV basically. I have mixed feelings about this.
Don't say we didn't warn you - Symposium of China's top think tank sends classic, pre-war warning to provocative Pelosi. Very interesting photos in that Article. I wonder do they know the actual meaning of the word 'symposium'. It's greek. Whoever suggested them the wording made fun of them. Could have simply said "China's top think tank sends ... ". Yep. One google search. Not one person in whole China can make a simple google search. Interesting.
Jul 29 2022
Some IT jobs now have "scapegoat!" written in big flashing letters.
Jul 30 2022
Fernando Sor -- six of his ballets are dedicated to 'whoever wants them'. These and other caustic remarks did not help his sales in the least.
Jul 31 2022
Nodirbek Abdusattorov Beat Magnus Carlsen in the end of 2021. The *exact* same play is being used now on Europe. I don't think Europe has anybody better, than Magnus. Watch the play. There was one moment in that play, that broke Magnus. You need to play chess to understand it, though. Also, speed chess is *not* "normal" chess. I once beat a master in speed chess, and that pissed him off. So to restore "the order" he beat me blind. Chess people are like that. And that also means one thing - win in speed chess means *nothing*, if the opponent has the opportunity to switch the game to "normal" chess.
Aug 01 2022
Yep. Debacle of Jul 29 - confirmed Aug 02. Eyes Wide Shut.
Flags and bracelets. One is constitutional department another is not.
Aug 02 2022
(Green) ABBA: 1970s. Mutated into (Digital) Girl with The Dragon Tatoo in just 40 years.
Aug 03 2022
Chinese Military Drills A Rehearsal For Taiwan
NVIDIA (NVDA) Fined $5.5M for Failing to Disclose Crypto Mining Impact -- In March 2021, at the height of a crypto bull market, NVIDIA released a new series of semiconductors called Cryptocurrency Mining Processor (CMP), specifically designed for mining Ether (ETH) -- The company disclosed that its crypto-mining hardware revenue declined 77% between the third and fourth quarters of 2021 as demand fell away in line with plunging cryptocurrency prices.
In just 4 short years idiots managed to destroy a lot. And then they moved back home. It's publicly available information. Wikipedia.
Aug 04 2022
Joel Hruska knows a thing or two about Huang's Law. Wikipedia has all the (important) answers to all the (important) questions. Wikipedia does *not* have the key information on the subject. I know a thing or two about caching servers and my work is not mentioned on Wikipedia. It's a very interesting thing, that Wikipedia. She only cares about stuff she cares about.
Wikipedia Golden Rule - no, that's several different rules.
Aug 05 2022
So why is the Ethereum Neoclassic hard fork potentially a thing? For the simple reason that the Merge is about to render an estimated $5B worth of mining rigs obsolete.
Will it happen? Likely.
Will it succeed? That's another question.
Aug 06 2022