Bitcoin

I study Bitcoin for a while now (crypto-peaks.com is my website, it runs one old version, I made a bit of progress since then)

Zero knowledge proof - read it.

So, you want to do another Dash fork

Short answer : don't

At this point of the game it makes little sense. Better find some existing powerhouse and help them. The question is not how long the fork will take, but would it be allowed to happen at all. Miners don't like when somebody disrupts the status quo and they have lots of power. Obviously. I've been contacted about dash forks several times by this time. One of the last McAfee projects was a dash fork. I have a way to make your project happen, but it will not be the way you want. Instead of running towards a disaster, first need to build defense. Defense will be your own token (like fuse.io) then circulation, then bonding curve. It's not a big deal really. Just do what this guy did: Story of Energi
(Not an endorsement of their timeline, but it's endorsement of their method, that can be applied to pretty much any case)

October 22 2021

Why bitcoin is unique:

1) Fungibility: Unlike other commodities (like oil, wheat or even gold), there are no varieties, purities or geographical versions of bitcoin. A bitcoin is a bitcoin. 2) Transportability: Bitcoin has no physical manifestation. As a result, it can be instantly transported from one location to another, anywhere in the world, at a cost approaching zero. 3) Exchange Tradability: Most commodities trade over-the-counter or rely on representative, derivative futures contracts because they lack the characteristics listed above. Bitcoin is unique in that it trades directly on exchange, allowing for open price discovery

October 26 2021

The head of the snake is in Europe

November 03 2021

What is my angle

I do bonding curves. It's not much, but I do them better, than many people on this planet. They moved all the people, who do that, from USA to HK. The last ship sailed a few months ago.

  1. In this 'crypto bubble' the only thing that they care about is how much (legal) money you can make using your idea (whatever the idea is).
  2. They don't fund nobody (that's by design, the logic is that if you can't make money trading, you don't know what you're talking about).
  3. Not only they don't fund, they take pride in trying to steal from you (because "should be solid") basically, there are many unspoken rules in that crypto bubble.

November 04 2021

What is Bitcoin?

They ask many people about it recently and (professional) people tell bunch of nonsense. The reason is that we all have our limits. "Internet is a series of tubes" was not really far off. If Internet is a series of tubes to transfer bits and bytes, Bitcoin is a bunch of bits and bytes. With *huge* (but hidden) humanitarian payload attached to those bits and bytes. And the process only begun 4 years ago. Or 2000 years ago. Or 5000 years. Depends whom you ask.

November 05 2021

So, you want to do your latest and greatest Blockchain

Short answer: don't

Pick up after 2018 vintage. There is (was) a surplus. Can start with pink one.

November 17 2021

Put down your forks

Many open source projects lose their way after the dude, who wrote the core engine - disappears. Bitcoin is no exception. The BCH was the way out, but they missed the opportunity. There is no need to fork codebases to do a fork. Original Bitcoin engine had everything to scale out. Still has. I figured out a way do NFTs on BTC. No fork.

November 27 2021

Crypto disruption

Was only possible by introducing a major distraction. In non-random world, Frequentism beats Bayesian systems. The more randomness - the stronger Bayesian system becomes.

December 12 2021

Crypto scammers are cornered

Behavior of crypto scammers turned erratic, aggressive and toxic.

December 13 2021

3 formulas

  • Formula of Classic fintech
  • Formula of Crypto fintech
  • Formula of Last Few Years
  • December 14 2021

    It peaked

    9/10ths of the total BTC supply has now been issued. Remaining 10% of supply set to be minted over the next 119 years or so, ending somewhere near the year 2140.

    What once was a reliable outflow of spending from miner wallets has shifted since 2019, and miners are now depositing more minted supply into their treasuries than before. The chart below shows the 90-day sum of Miner Netflow Volume (in USD) as a percentage of Market Cap, and the multi-year rise is evident. If miners evolve into being HODLers, a group who are naturally incentivized to spend, then acquiring new Bitcoin into the future could become exceedingly difficult.

    Some people know digital. Some people know biology. Some people know politics. Nobody can know the whole three things equally well. Impossible. There is also aspect of knowing / doing.

    December 21 2021

    IOU on BTC

    It is missing and there is zero justification for that. It's very simple to implement and the only barriers are legislative. Now that I think about it, all those fortunes created in USA, they were all purely legislative. For example, Pay Pal was given a legal monopoly on Internet money. Nobody can go bankrupt being the only Internet money on the whole planet. Same with Amazon - accounting trick. One click patents. All legislative plays. Crypto is of course the same.

    December 23 2021

    Taleb on BTC

    Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility
    Cryptocurrencies require a sustained amount of interest in them.

    The charts in his PDF say it peaked. I'm not sure about "zero", though.
    The PDF has no date on it.

    Jan 01 2022

    Kazakhstan

    Bitcoin slumps to a three-month low
    Many crypto miners fled China for neighboring Kazakhstan over Beijing's ban on virtual currency mining. Kazakhstan's internet shutdown took as much as 15% of the network offline, according to some estimates.

    Edgy calm in Kazakhstan
    But NetBlocks, a global Internet monitor, said that connectivity was still at about five percent of normal levels as of Saturday morning.

    Jan 08 2022

    Wise contracts

    This smart contracts stuff is no good. To actually create value need to fix it a little bit. Here is the fix. Transparent contracts on blockchain with retainer and collateral directed towards Trump, not towards the worker. On BTC chain. Yes, it's possible.

    The wise contract is the exact opposite of smart contract. De Niro talked about it openly, nobody listened. Smart contract requires the worker to provide collateral for transactions to happen. Wise contract requires the manager to provide collateral for transactions to happen.

    Current crypto bubble is stacked against the skilled labor. Current crypto bubble is a semantic trickery that is wearing thin. "Proof of Work" has nothing to do with Work, "Proof of Stake" has nothing to do with Stake etc.

    First wise contract can be implemented over existing ETH blockchain in a matter of days. Only after it is implemented over ETH the question becomes : "Why ETH?"

    Feb 08 2022

    Negative Oil is not the end

    The next bubble is supposed to burst about 10-12 months from now. If that happens, it will "cover up" for crypto bubble, like real estate crash covered for internet bubble crash. No, not stawks.

    Microsoft Looking To Hire 'Head Of Crypto' - the crypto bubble is over.

    Mar 01 2022

    Europe is the only place, who has both miners and traders

    Ukrainian coders are moved to Poland. Russian / Belorussian coders are moved to Serbia. So now Europe has coders also. It also has all the Russian Oligarch yachts (for free).

    Mar 10 2022

    No matter what you do with crypto, you have to figure out:

  • distribution
  • legislation
  • cash flow


  • There is also, of course, technology, but that's a tool. The trick is that if you only figure out one or two legs, you (still) lose. And in crypto "lost" means "dead". AKA quadriga.

    Tide

    First (professional) anti-Bitcoin article in San Jose Mercury News. Clearly, they plan to bury crypto now by:

  • Implementing digital dollar ('legal crypto')
  • Tightening KYC ('illegal crypto')
  • In that article, they're missing one important technical moment. Described on this page.

    Mar 12 2022

    EU Vote Which Could 'Practically' Ban Key Digital Currencies EU voted to keep Bitcoin.

    Nancy Pelosi: "Government Spending Reduces Debt" - Nancy Pelosi is the greatest politician.

    Another day, another article against crypto in SJMN. This time it's against DAO.

    Mar 13 2022

    Ethereum 2.0 -- Finally, the crypto battle is about to get real. I can actually tell you how BTC can crush ETH, it's described on this page. Technically that's rather easy. ETH can also crush BTC, yes. And you know what? Both can be destroyed overnight with a stroke of a pen. So I'm a little bit undecided about this crypto thingy now. It's nice that the guy in orange pijamas is beginning to notice that "Crypto itself has a lot of dystopian potential if implemented wrong". No shit, Sherlock. Maybe you should discuss that with Greta, on her yacht. While you sail towards one of Obama's mansions. Pyromania is a bitch.

    Mar 26 2022

    Figured out how to do DAO on BTC.

    Apr 02 2022

    Figured up the insanity of flash loans. Typical NY stuff.

    Apr 03 2022

    (Made by User:Golbez. - Own work, CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=996182)



    'MAGA' - 'Back to 1822!'

    Also, this is aligned with crypo activities.
    They are different across the zones.



    Apr 04 2022

    The Inflation / Deflation Vortex (no, not just good old inflation, the Vortex only exists since 2016) will destroy *everybody* in US IT. (For a simple reason that IT is not a commodity). The question is not "if" it is "when". Anybody who is doing *any* IT work in the US is kind of doomed (the exact same way everybody doing IT work in Ukraine / Russia / Belorussia was doomed). All those people (100s thousands) were assuming that "we do everything right, accumulating those skills". And they *were* right. Until everything changed for them. Overnight. It's related to Automation Paradox. Some part of Automation Paradox is described here : Datacenters. I need to write down the Automation Paradox, maybe will do that some day.

    Apr 06 2022

    Figured out the *only* possible approach to NFTs. There is lots of noise, sure. That's the vertical of art. Art needs noise.

    Apr 17 2022

    NFTs collapsed. 99%. Art is tricky.

    Years after calling Bitcoin 'rat poison,' Warren Buffett just invested $1 billion in a crypto-friendly bank

    Apr 19 2022

    Figured out USDT Shenanigans. Looks like that stuff is what fuels atrocities in EU.

    Apr 22 2022

    Michael Saylor is Secretly Selling His Bitcoin and Doesn't Want You To Know The interesting moment here, how do you lose $13 Bln.

    The only problem with Mathematics. Mathematics is a set of mental methods. All of the objects are in fact ideal. They do not exist in real life. As a result, nobody can actually *see* if the formula is correct or wrong. Different with physics / chemistry / biology anything else (they have *experiment*). Math has no experiment. Except computer. Computer validates the sneaky math. Program gives the solid answer - or it does not. That's why the battle will always be the way it is now. Speaking from personal experience. There is one major data structure in crypto that mathematicians see as unbeatable. Problem is - I was asked to beat that puzzle (several times) when I was interviewed by (strong) mathematicians - for computing position. And I solved it. Computer is not mathematics. Computer is a physical object. Very much physical object.

    Apr 25 2022

    Robinhood To Fire 9% Of Full-Time Employees

    Apr 26 2022

    HR and Corporate Lawyers. 2011.

    May 01 2022

    Set of simple binary automatas can produce rather complex process (especially if you add/remove some at will), but that does not mean that any complex process can be decomposed into set of simple binary automatas. Similar to billiard balls paradox.

    Here is a novel business idea. Broker, who does not steal client's money. Yes, it got *this* bad. Also - blockchain, that guarantees finality. Again - it got *this* bad.

    This means leveraged DEX on BTC is a killer app. Non-collateralized.

    May 02 2022

    Haruna Miyagawa.

    May 03 2022

    "You may fool people for a time; you can fool a part of the people all the time; but you can't fool all the people all the time"
    "We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality"

    May 04 2022

    Purim and Passover in Goebbels' Castle you can easily find this on one search engine, but you cannot find this on another search engine. The internet is being split.

    Business is a set of (simple) conventions. Now and then there comes a crazy idiot, who ecourages people to violate the (simple) conventions. Those, who violate simple conventions ... They will not last long. Yes, it's this simple.

    May 05 2022

    Moore's law covers industrial computing. Consumer electronics is covered by Mikhail Donskoy's law.

    Figured out a simple test for any ML person. Most of them have no idea about ML, of course. (Aspects vs algos)

    If some activity has a binary outcome, computer will always beat human being in that activity. Not even binary, actually. Binary is a corner case of a set. I uderstand this sounds like a theorem. Because it is.

    Neural Networks approach to Chess was suboptimal, but adequate for those acient times. So were many other engines. Relational Database for example.

    May 06 2022

    This internet thing. It's not really decentralized. The crypto thing ... It is a bit better decentralized, but it's a toy mostly, kind of easy to break. The internet thing was not a toy, it was an industry. Also, internet thing was open. Crypto is a club. Open systems always beat clubs in a long run. Some laws are very hard to break.

    The (only) force of crypto bubble? Laws of physics. Electricity is (much) easier to produce, than to transport. After US switched to digital, USD became (too) easy to produce (because no printing) and easy to transport (internet).

    Crypto stack is a Pyramid, like everything else:

    1. Technology
    2. Finance
    3. NFT/DAO

    Reversed.

    May 07 2022

    Few rules. Not mine.

  • 100% winners do not exist. Chase the value, not the mirage
  • "Best bet", "all in" - does not exist. Next day is the "best bet"
  • Fundamentals beat statistics
  • "Specialization" is bullshit. Go where you feel like going

  • These rules filter out most of the traders. Yes, it's possible to win piles of money on stawks and have no idea what you're doing. Very possible.

    First serious contenders for ETH are beginning to emerge. They want to stay under radar. They are not Turing complete. Any usable VM will do. Easy money. It's obvious that VM can not possibly be a defensible IP in a vertical that only cares about money.

    May 08 2022

    If after today you *still* don't understand how BTC works - you should not touch it without adult in the room.

    When somebody openly and loudly talks crap about (dangerous) person X - usually means they are with that person. Obvious, right?

    Defence by burning used to work. On the way up.

    Run on crypto banks started.

    May 09 2022

    To understand crypto shenanigans one has to understand the outcome of a Duel between Burbakists and Russian Academia. I need to write this down because few months ago I found a (major) bug in the transcript of the Duel and the side effects of that are major. I also found a bug in one of key mathematical whitepapers that holds crypto world together. To find a bug one has to be better. Yes, that's how it works.

    May 10 2022

    Four groups, not counting minor flags.

    On upwork there is one European company who is looking for people, who trade $10 Mln / month on Binance and they promise them $600 for consultation? Test session? They are all insane by this time. "Let me go outside and find a trader, who trades $10 Mln". On the internet. "Flat Earth" stuff - going strong.

    On craigslist, there is more and more people, who offer prime real estate for barter. Turns out real estate can not feed you when it stays empty for years. Go figure. That reminds me. A year ago there were people on social networks trying to find a buyer for a Datacenter. And it was not a joke.

    May 13 2022

    This crypto stuff is based on some *really* early work. For example Robert Owen did the similar kind of experiments. Wikipedia labels him as 'philanthropic capitalist'. Not a joke. This means crypto peoples are in 19 century, while the rest of the planet collapses into 17 century. Russia wants to hang on to the beginning of 20-th century. Ukraine wanted to stay in the middle of 20-th century. Nobody wants to stay in 21-st century. "We've seen this 'progress' stuff and it stinks".

    Only Paranoid Survive. 1988.

    May 15 2022

    I think that large number of crypto outfits is being crushed by current bear market, because their models no longer work. To sustain the numbers they *have* to increase the headcount, but they *can not* (people in Europe can't care less about crypto, they have a war on their hands etc etc). Trend is clear. Crypto outfits can not find new people to bring into (existing) pyramids fast enough. So there is a lots of idling pyramids. And runs on some crypto banks. That moves their hiring methods into "fuck you! give us the money! loser!". Which is not particularly reasonable model for growth, indeed. Crypto people do everything backwards. They always push harder. Well, that's the industry of bullies with "HODL! Paper hands!". Whoever put this con in motion did amazing job to make sure that *nobody* profits from this bubble.

    Some territories are beyond repare by this point. They don't understand, but it's obvious. Trolling does that to people.

    May 16 2022

    Web 1.0 had "fucked company" website. Web 3.0 has : https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ -- the key difference? fucked company had a message board. Open system vs Closed system.

    Cautionary Tales from Cryptoland - Interview with a nice lady who runs that site and there is a lots of contrarian URLs in that article.

    Supply Chain

    As long as you have the servers running in right jurisdiction and distributed nicely, and as long as you have a way to boost the outputs, everything should work out no matter what you do really. This crypto thing has a shortcut which is supply chain done right, it's rather remarkable how they are squashing all the non-Asian supply chains for 4+ years, but it would not be possible soon. By this time there are only two places on this planet that produce super-yields, so the whales no longer have enough plankton, actually. Well, when the wannabe whale is running out of gas, they (always) try to steal all the money and run. Only I think that by this time running is not an option actually. After few bankers got slaughtered in Europe (recently) carrying $500 Mln on them, I don't think anybody believes that running with money is any kind of a solution. Yet that was the corner stone of the industry. So - optimization of supply chains is the next step. My page describes how. Starts with $5/month. If you don't have that much money - that might be a problem.

    May 17 2022

    Poll by Musk

    Twitter claims that >95% of daily active users are real, unique humans. Does anyone have that experience?

    To estimate a percentage of bots on twitter all you need to do is a simple script that looks at random accounts and generates a percentage of bots on average. It's the most trivial trick called 'sampling' and it's been used in USA for 100+ years. It's an obvious trick. Musk is from Pay Pal. They know accounting.

    "In the last month, crypto has lost $1 trillion in market cap".
    "Bitcoin prices have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, a new record".

    Plenty of activity in crypto real estate. Spike.

    May 18 2022

    Crypto outfits have only one major strategic flaw. It looks like they are all exposed to that very flaw. Sure, they have some funny problems here and there, but one flaw that is major. And decisive. Buterin does *not* have that flaw. Which is an interesting moment.

    May 20 2022

    How a Trash-Talking Crypto Founder Caused a $40 Billion Crash this article had been reprinted verbatim by SJMN.

    May 23 2022